# Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May

> Ariana Grande leads at 92%, runner-up 13% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-artists-have-1-hits-us-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T19:20:09.652Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Ariana Grande at 92%
- Runner-up: Beyonce at 13%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $16K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariana Grande | 92¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-1-hits-in-the-us-in-may-ar-polymarket-0x3822760f24b05033f129f9704f29038775ec49639d6a10e240138d25a824c689 |
| Beyonce | 13¢ | +6pp | $36 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-1-hits-in-the-us-in-may-be-polymarket-0xc3bca4495d43cf3b407838563e63bf7a3ea0f57348446506f8ded4503f1dcddb |
| Olivia Dean | 3¢ | ±0 | $14K | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-1-hits-in-the-us-in-may-ol-polymarket-0x88b8af5f303343bf813bcf1648f16c6d848f5494a7ba4984a464393cac393210 |
| Taylor Swift | 3¢ | ±0 | $27 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-1-hits-in-the-us-in-may-ta-polymarket-0x6dc5a86af811a567c65595a3af7844cd132f647589db0d24b22f51ae1a6365d5 |
| Bad Bunny | 3¢ | −1pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-1-hits-in-the-us-in-may-ba-polymarket-0x096be8f67ba6b19791a4f0eadd9e89ff18498ef5c6713b4b69101435978bbf89 |
| Kanye West | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-1-hits-in-the-us-in-may-ka-polymarket-0x09f80ee877de4b244766a6c56b71b40e221f1cd4e88c08d405a2fec277875469 |
| The Weeknd | 3¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-1-hits-in-the-us-in-may-th-polymarket-0x3c1af9432cc40443750731cd8c5655e21e006e8b2993acc52812fd57327e6796 |
| Bruno Mars | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-1-hits-in-the-us-in-may-br-polymarket-0x99478d99fdea42cf57aa9d1aeddf1bc5b49555821ea0495ee5389469abafc7c3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ariana Grande | Beyonce | Olivia Dean |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | 87 | — | 6 |
| 2026-05-25 | 86 | 6 | 6 |
| 2026-05-26 | 89 | 4 | 5 |
| 2026-05-27 | 93 | 10 | 6 |
| 2026-05-28 | 94 | — | 6 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · The Weeknd −9pp 35→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · The Weeknd −8pp 26→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Beyonce +6pp 4→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Ariana Grande +4pp 89→93¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Ariana Grande +3pp 86→89¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market asks whether Ariana Grande will secure a #1 hit on the US Billboard Hot 100 chart during May 2026. The 87% probability reflects traders' assessment that she is highly likely to achieve this outcome. The elevated odds reflect her consistent chart performance history and any recent releases or promotional activity scheduled for the period. Key drivers include whether she has a new single or album in active promotion during May, the competitive strength of other charting artists, and overall streaming momentum. The resolution depends entirely on Billboard's official Hot 100 rankings released each week throughout May, with the final week determining whether she achieved the threshold. Market uncertainty could shift significantly if unexpected chart competitors emerge or if her promotional timeline changes.

### Key factors

- Whether Ariana Grande has an active single release or album promotion cycle scheduled for May 2026
- Historical chart performance data for Ariana Grande versus competing artists with realistic May 2026 release prospects
- Streaming volume and radio airplay metrics during May, which directly influence Billboard Hot 100 positioning
- Any new releases or surprise drops from rival artists that could displace potential #1 contenders from the top position
- Billboard's official Hot 100 chart rankings published weekly, with verification required from the final week of May

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-artists-have-1-hits-us-may
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-artists-have-1-hits-us-may

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.