# Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year

> Drake leads at 89%, runner-up 84% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-artists-have-billboard-1-song
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.428Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Drake at 89%
- Runner-up: Ariana Grande at 84%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $51

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake | 89¢ | +2pp | $51 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0x14db5fe75bc6f415da24c368c82e30d72fd58fc6ae631df757a0ceac4de5509b |
| Ariana Grande | 84¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0xa462533e94f104de960b21d755e856b29c875770f0ba25337695da553a17bb5b |
| Peso Pluma | 62¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0x6c5a6d0c88fd31daf9be8c690fabb78965f0a6996a39ae7b57cd853345d8cd51 |
| Post Malone | 61¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0x441f95ffdc8379d6a6b3ecb1f45e9bf13529f0b6cab5efd0196fd1d4d7781e87 |
| Morgan Wallen | 47¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0x45992769df9a4cfd478c7d5ab9450ad1337a98d79d6fbceb502eeba2888c9bc3 |
| Playboi Carti | 43¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0x9acd1fad62009e8eaa01a55b680cd2157b62addaeb281e9592ab76d20799643b |
| Kendrick Lamar | 40¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0x0cac4e851f08527d142c537bd80c3c0ccc642e59928354c76f0834c018f8c029 |
| The Weeknd | 38¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0xbc4dbe5037661f27535ffa738b693d6003053a87c9ee527988d8d4a880a106a9 |
| Luke Combs | 33¢ | −13pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0x51eb1fc36e97b2aebe47baf0ff55a86c280d41cbb0d250a5eadceedc4f6d81d8 |
| Billie Eilish | 32¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0x892d3a913a5ce5fac86c88eb362b7858bfa866f579be5f184bf6cddcb587f6c6 |
| SZA | 25¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0xadbe6199f41cbf1881e3cd21d517067f9d1ed12e6e62b003184b7ef3c5d3e7ff |
| Rihanna | 23¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0x0e3dadcf791ff5c1b63055ac7401d5994e5f8cac2c423d86ef86bbd40821914c |
| Ed Sheeran | 19¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0x8249c9c01121afbfd139321c5e6b0348b8fc92b6daa21b62140a40141cf2858e |
| Future | 19¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0xf9ab3829eb85b2846f8e4f8d02e3fd035381309c3b5d7a1a04e41e9cba74fd82 |
| A$AP Rocky | 18¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0xcb9afce56f5c231235c2e8e93acb3783d8860bd20a0949f55239c3372acc2693 |
| Kanye West | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0x3297ab8538e92f2d798ed9cf0036d7306c3bd1dd71c2a6d76756d3b838bf2832 |
| Tyler, The Creator | 16¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0xa14cc61e6f812a66efddfae031f0f453c3cbefe2772945f5bc4f8d66bf1e768c |
| Jack Harlow | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0x33af2eb0a55b053264f88a29977837e500c9a4aabdd1da9fcf1ce1428d6aa903 |
| Lil Baby | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0xc18a8eb1be17702b6c2881d37c303f5addd5e988fdaf39bd4b5178cf4d9e001c |
| Doja Cat | 9¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-ye-polymarket-0xe45c05ece77ebe05f9ad325001ac226cb9c862b077030b65286891bef5b4859c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Drake | Ariana Grande | Peso Pluma |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 81 | 81 | 51 |
| 2026-04-25 | 77 | 51 | 50 |
| 2026-05-02 | 86 | 82 | 50 |
| 2026-05-07 | 88 | 82 | 55 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | — | 63 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Lil Baby +21pp 10→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · SZA −15pp 41→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Tyler, The Creator −15pp 27→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Doja Cat −14pp 26→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Kendrick Lamar −14pp 36→22¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that at least one artist from the listed group will achieve a Billboard #1 song during 2026. The 90% probability reflects expectations that chart-toppers emerge regularly, particularly given Drake's historical dominance in reaching the top position. The probability is primarily driven by artists' current streaming momentum, release schedules, and historical chart performance. Major factors include whether established artists release competitive new material and how emerging tracks perform against competition. Resolution depends on actual Billboard Hot 100 chart data throughout 2026, with outcomes clarifying as the year progresses and artists release new work.

### Key factors

- Drake has reached #1 multiple times historically; current market pricing at 91¢ suggests traders view his odds as highest
- Mariah Carey is priced at 90¢ despite 'All I Want for Christmas Is You' peaking in December—repeat seasonal performance would be the primary #1 path
- Kendrick Lamar at 44¢indicates lower near-term probability, contingent on new album release timing and commercial reception
- The 19-contract structure means outcome depends on whether any single artist achieves #1 status—not the quantity of #1 songs across the group
- Volume concentrated on Drake (90¢/day volume $50) versus zero volume on most competitors suggests disagreement about which artist is most likely to top charts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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