# Which artists will release a new song in 2026

> Lil Uzi Vert leads at 92%, runner-up 72% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-artists-release-new-song
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.113Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Lil Uzi Vert at 92%
- Runner-up: Taylor Swift at 72%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lil Uzi Vert | 92¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-in-2026-lil-polymarket-0xec692a3d046e7fbfed68662e638af6c49070732defb1e9782144a6d9bbd7146b |
| Taylor Swift | 72¢ | +11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-in-2026-tayl-polymarket-0x39735fe1c56e0ce30bddd9622ff58d55454a1413814dedd5a87901b7fdd59e1e |
| Nicki Minaj | 61¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-in-2026-nick-polymarket-0x8a1b8ba89dcc18b6c871d493854e41625ddb3f3197e61a879514f2b567c21fcb |
| JAY-Z | 59¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-in-2026-jay-polymarket-0xffda1c03516975d418d8f87b201ddfafac0c9c3995494bdcb02106cfc7da0847 |
| Beyoncé | 51¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-in-2026-beyo-polymarket-0x8fc0e048c309978d0b27931766cd9958e0b578673e9b3d89444aef05e384635f |
| SZA | 49¢ | −13pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-in-2026-sza-polymarket-0x3aa9ce6efb84ec4602f1dd916478104037cf8570485e04eff998cb8e01eba67b |
| Frank Ocean | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-in-2026-fran-polymarket-0xce92e2efdc13584f681266b443bbfe7671a11c5295234621eda97258207b894b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Lil Uzi Vert | Taylor Swift | Nicki Minaj |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 85 | 79 | 91 |
| 2026-04-25 | 97 | 75 | 90 |
| 2026-04-29 | 78 | 67 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 76 | 83 |
| 2026-05-08 | 77 | 68 | 88 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Taylor Swift −18pp 75→57¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · SZA −13pp 62→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Taylor Swift +11pp 57→68¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · JAY-Z −9pp 52→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Lil Uzi Vert −9pp 78→69¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects traders' assessment that Nicki Minaj has an 88% chance of releasing at least one new song during 2026. The high probability reflects her established pattern of regular releases and active presence in the music industry, though it could shift based on unexpected career changes or health issues. The main drivers are her track record of consistent output and upcoming industry cycles. The resolution will depend on official releases tracked by music platforms and industry databases through December 31, 2026, making this sensitive to any announced hiatuses or surprise releases. Related markets show lower confidence in full-album releases versus single songs across artists like Taylor Swift (74%) and SZA (66%), suggesting traders distinguish between major project commitments and one-off releases.

### Key factors

- Nicki Minaj's historical release frequency: she has released new music in 11 of the past 12 calendar years, establishing a strong baseline expectation
- Absence of announced breaks or retirement: no public statements as of mid-2026 indicating she plans to step back from recording
- Distinction between singles and albums: the market prices song releases higher than album releases, reflecting lower barriers to new single content
- Comparison data from peer artists: Taylor Swift at 74% and SZA at 66% suggests market uncertainty about sustained output across the industry
- Market liquidity constraints: zero 24-hour volume on top contracts indicates limited recent trading activity and potential stale pricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-artists-release-new-song

## License

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