# Which banks will fail by June 30

> BMO leads at 34%, runner-up 3% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-banks-fail-june-30
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:24.354Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: BMO at 34%
- Runner-up: Lloyds at 3%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $569

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO | 34¢ | −12pp | $549 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-june-30-bmo-polymarket-0x33d076c2fc3c9895013385077e36014f5cb18b611fb08c0486fd1efaf975258e |
| Lloyds | 3¢ | ±0 | $20 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-june-30-lloyds-polymarket-0x6d86cb79c0e14eff33900b5b2be1dbf49f6a1f0e60158e8d0ea399041569257c |
| KeyBank | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-june-30-keybank-polymarket-0x3dd0d06f23adbd0c10e97bbd6e0965a1dbd150b76a1b1a8e84e3c0442d0f1507 |
| RBC | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-june-30-rbc-polymarket-0x2d24ef41d4d3e50f40a7d6af1575cee08b833f0719f802126f4c1067b1530d69 |
| US Bank | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-june-30-us-bank-polymarket-0x20bbd3dd225798c81437b443b320a15b66c587934acd31749a1aa5170dad3971 |
| BNY | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-june-30-bny-polymarket-0x702d368fe811b88bfbd2a295bab6fcdceebbcfaada2c581a17b1f83bccdf75ec |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | BMO | Lloyds | KeyBank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 18 | 17 | 25 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 1 | 2 |
| 2026-04-26 | 2 | 2 | 45 |
| 2026-05-02 | 25 | 2 | 1 |
| 2026-05-09 | 33 | 2 | — |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Lloyds −43pp 45→2¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · BMO +23pp 2→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · BMO +21pp 25→46¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · RBC −17pp 20→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · BNY −16pp 18→2¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-banks-fail-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-banks-fail-june-30

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.