# Which banks will fail by end of 2026

> BMO leads at 47%, runner-up 34% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-banks-fail
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:38.283Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: BMO at 47%
- Runner-up: Truist at 34%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO | 47¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-bmo-polymarket-0x30b2deb9b9d10ada7c448e49e23486c072d22256076bc910a62fe3147fffdad1 |
| Truist | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-truist-polymarket-0x234363a3e06d4b733a14f27f986de6a9e66957e298089335e899486b7466f393 |
| Scotiabank | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-scotiabank-polymarket-0x9451a6563a2fdad999d3971d5c93257763ed75e0f22fee0e235ae5547ed9fe7b |
| KeyBank | 12¢ | ±0 | $10 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-keybank-polymarket-0x4e980e70f3d65f0f5c294d307e8763c608c77842aa9935d69f89b1a4fca2f833 |
| UBS | 10¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-ubs-polymarket-0x760d22dda96a9be16e46dcba06887d67713e61a09402fa6d86d5c43ebabbfe66 |
| US Bank | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-us-bank-polymarket-0xfa88530a5b880684cb581d6ce9bfc43916e0f4c0a627b7e072d76e0c46548019 |
| Santander | 7¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-santander-polymarket-0x0914b2643c0ac593fa57f899e7622bfe12de2c354192daf48c0d6635232e6310 |
| BNY | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-bny-polymarket-0x6eb62d7fd9000a2a7d629957df250849bf38a86f97d6ae539b57367f7d367f8f |
| Wells Fargo | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-wells-fargo-polymarket-0x823ec3696d3231996425f818d75d6d42b5e128ccba56fedbb82e07b87bbe7ac1 |
| Deutsche Bank | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-deutsche-bank-polymarket-0xb8feb64dfb4c0fe1e1d8fe1cc331beae7f21451b675da2bc9689fe8811402f7c |
| Morgan Stanley | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-morgan-stanle-polymarket-0xecee7ddba60422c1b7b46cfeac8b07605b4c9b813fd2dd79f0f3a1aace4f0fa6 |
| Goldman Sachs | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-goldman-sachs-polymarket-0xb9e2717954d6144df1865e3b051e406d259f1016719c0004abb10efe95b2ab1f |
| Lloyds | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-lloyds-polymarket-0x2f591c8eb07d638e18d5b853c40cdc575ce119bff79766eaa688de2e22a10580 |
| BNP Paribas | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-bnp-paribas-polymarket-0x8f801217bd2fa3d5680464f614009bf20d80e67311e89806a81761890b4edcab |
| Citigroup | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-citigroup-polymarket-0xc7799659bdd3f217bb7fa3c5139780fe3a1f2a2868c54744423af2ce8fb213f3 |
| HSBC | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-hsbc-polymarket-0x7929422cfcbfdf396087e7eb71bb6387bbca7d2cad45d8fab777dd67ee84167c |
| RBC | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-rbc-polymarket-0xbeb364147de6b77c7fc25e46ecf2f329ca999c17af2fbb9283867a752bb93405 |
| Bank of America | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-bank-of-ameri-polymarket-0x351de05f53559ed9c2fe5038f062db1e4a20cc245f7441cc4340f1501d0d4898 |
| JPMorgan Chase | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026-jpmorgan-chas-polymarket-0x62e5489cac5d0ed7f551af1f76bcf708e9ebe135d4788fbd783eb24274124112 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | BMO | Truist | Scotiabank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 24 | 5 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 48 | 33 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 47 | 33 | 21 |
| 2026-05-08 | 48 | 34 | 21 |
| 2026-05-09 | 46 | 34 | — |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · BNY −28pp 35→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · BMO +24pp 24→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Truist +17pp 16→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · KeyBank +11pp 4→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Truist +11pp 5→16¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that at least one major bank will fail by December 31, 2026. The 8% level reflects relatively low near-term systemic risk, though higher than 2024-2025 baseline expectations. Markets are pricing in moderate concern around interest-rate volatility, deposit stability, and asset quality deterioration as key drivers. Investor attention centers on Truist (priced at 28¢ across contracts), suggesting concentrated concern about a specific institution rather than broad-based banking sector collapse. The resolution hinges on official regulatory determinations or formal FDIC intervention by year-end. Key uncertainty factors include Q2-Q3 2026 earnings seasons, which will reveal loan loss provisions and net interest margin pressure, and any macroeconomic shocks affecting credit quality or liquidity conditions.

### Key factors

- Truist commands 28¢ pricing versus 3-5¢ for other major banks, indicating market focus on a single institution rather than systemic risk
- Interest-rate environment through mid-2026 will materially affect net interest margins and deposit flight risk for regional and mid-cap banks
- Corporate and commercial real estate loan performance data in Q2-Q3 2026 earnings will signal asset-quality deterioration or stability
- Regulatory capital ratios and stress-test results (if conducted) provide objective thresholds for intervention decisions
- No scheduled major regulatory event or stress test is formally planned for 2026, making resolution dependent on deterioration triggers rather than scheduled reviews

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-banks-fail
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-banks-fail

## License

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