# Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff

> Flavio Bolsonaro leads at 87%, runner-up 82% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-candidates-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff
Updated: 2026-05-09T08:05:24.172Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-04

## Headline

- Leader: Flavio Bolsonaro at 87%
- Runner-up: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 82%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $65

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 87¢ | ±0 | $46 | polymarket | /markets/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-president-polymarket-0x023a8c2fd2a78c29c9748a44205e2cbe624d86c11ee41b81d4067ddbbf2a135f |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 82¢ | +1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-president-polymarket-0x7b22caeed454d3c7dbd07b83d8255c74e1482c4f958b4ba4dd0c27b864cd47a2 |
| Fernando Haddad | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-president-polymarket-0x42c969b601530ece32eef646b8cbd91ac66e68bdad1fd2ba426f69a2ee2c7548 |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 4¢ | +3pp | $15 | polymarket | /markets/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-president-polymarket-0x385cddb4dd6eeb4e09394901122f5ca461c5d07fe83fe3f4349ea5a877c3e6cc |
| Tarcisio de Frietas | 3¢ | −19pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-president-polymarket-0xd7391798f941b8fe16773f96397ef3f91a2fc36939bdd50a78776dbf93ddd280 |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-president-polymarket-0x003e6ffdf25f45a8d5679831551658e1b54094187f552fc6ef4b26bca404c971 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Flavio Bolsonaro | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | Fernando Haddad |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 87 | 83 | 14 |
| 2026-04-25 | 86 | 76 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 86 | 72 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 86 | 74 | 6 |
| 2026-05-03 | 87 | — | 7 |
| 2026-05-09 | 88 | 82 | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva +4pp 74→78¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Jair Bolsonaro +3pp 2→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva +3pp 78→81¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 87% probability indicates that markets expect Flávio Bolsonaro to advance to Brazil's presidential runoff, based on aggregated contracts across Polymarket and Kalshi. The probability reflects confidence that Bolsonaro will finish among the top two candidates in the first round, though separate contracts show lower odds (44%) that he wins outright. The high probability is primarily driven by Bolsonaro's current polling position and name recognition as a leading right-wing candidate, while uncertainty centers on whether challengers like Lula can consolidate opposition votes. The main catalyst for resolution is Brazil's first-round election results, scheduled for their next national election cycle. Between now and that vote, changes in polling aggregates, campaign developments, and voter mobilization efforts—particularly among opposition parties—could shift market expectations either upward or downward.

### Key factors

- Flávio Bolsonaro's position in current public polling relative to second-place finishers determines runoff advancement likelihood
- First-round vote threshold: candidates need sufficient support to place top-two; a fragmented field increases advancement odds, consolidation reduces them
- Lula's ballot eligibility and campaign viability affect whether opposition votes concentrate behind a single competitor
- Turnout levels and regional voting patterns in Brazil's first round directly determine whether leading candidates clear the runoff threshold
- Campaign incidents, legal challenges, or coalition shifts in the 6-12 months before election day could alter candidate viability assessments

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-candidates-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-candidates-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff

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