# Which characters will appear in Avengers

> Doomsday?: Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool leads at 87%, runner-up 85% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-characters-appear-avengers
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:38.419Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-18

## Headline

- Leader: Doomsday?: Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool at 87%
- Runner-up: Doomsday?: Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange at 85%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $215

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doomsday?: Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool | 87¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0x5f74b5e8492af8a75bcc971e0285b6e4fea82d92d39e32dba1fb4e04db9bc837 |
| Doomsday?: Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange | 85¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0x2391aa63093c13686c5aedec491b8c140840e564ccb30ba9ccfefb35f0e9a7ed |
| Doomsday?: Benedict Wong as Wong | 82¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0xb88efe58d64f0a8bd3a5c68097ea8d703407432f9557f2550e65e6725800956a |
| Doomsday?: Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel | 81¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0xaa171f20edcf257588ea814e41dd1a17030db545de05ee27be30beaddbcb3296 |
| Doomsday?: Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man | 77¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0xd4ba56820e4a287a3997e780a592516228fb13a262ec56aea4141cd6a881d5d9 |
| Doomsday?: Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau | 75¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0xe9f21f3752e963d62932423d02def8a1dbb8039304582047258620e11755da34 |
| Doomsday?: Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts | 74¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0xfb0b73b8b75b7a5b16c8ef33527db8419eff97e0f886cbd16a8a2d22af350178 |
| Doomsday?: Hugh Jackman as Wolverine | 72¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0x9a22f275ad5ebdac774ea6ad6f9e52fcb252187980a0be2becdb24c338b9a716 |
| Doomsday?: Halle Berry as Storm | 60¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0xc5b8a7e89e60c30d6c1e3ab30353708344e571c5e0be69459b0de480f7e6fb72 |
| Doomsday?: Tom Holland as Spider-Man | 56¢ | −1pp | $54 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0x116ef6172ae1fa2b206be1910f41a27f4a25bb7ed54d761157973a59518bd3ad |
| Doomsday?: Brie Larson as Captain Marvel | 53¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0x7560d17de8eba126e67e2d32e88faf61b0fa558d88b258accaf097e43a0382c5 |
| Doomsday?: Mark Ruffalo as Hulk | 52¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0xd6696b1f8f76b02c28b1ad2288da9080cdb5f12a90fc6330cd1f4bd06a2ddd35 |
| Doomsday?: Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez | 50¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0x193811133067252c62713ace40b7e839ee92deb66e6c6de6650771e495ee4eeb |
| Doomsday?: Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp | 48¢ | −2pp | $23 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0x4889f2333d0cda4368a7d37afc2a3a47fa628af304608c095774f3075c3eb95f |
| Doomsday?: Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop | 42¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0xf9a646015bbf0c35b5de4bd4d69a5c78edf65c1c94b05104717237de154fc173 |
| Doomsday?: Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine | 41¢ | −12pp | $115 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0x6fe9f26e476b3db70ddda41e130dae8afe499cb78ef247daaf3336217366ebde |
| Doomsday?: Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0x76415d8735b0e5bf13d2ec0473ead9bd40f07ea8c82487328408db95cb3a602f |
| Doomsday?: Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0x07eaadb00e3996a0877b0242b702391addfe503766b0137807a41e13f5a0eb2d |
| Doomsday?: Jonathan Majors as Kang | 17¢ | ±0 | $23 | polymarket | /markets/which-characters-will-appear-in-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0xdf0c6b5d69af22deae2f14aec8fc3c4c8f20e61e0a7de3a4861838cc9d984d8d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Doomsday?: Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool | Doomsday?: Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange | Doomsday?: Benedict Wong as Wong |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 65 | 73 | 60 |
| 2026-04-29 | 90 | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | — | — | 83 |
| 2026-05-08 | 87 | — | 81 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 82 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Doomsday?: Benedict Wong as Wong +23pp 60→83¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Doomsday?: Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop −22pp 67→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Doomsday?: Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp +20pp 32→52¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Doomsday?: Halle Berry as Storm +20pp 40→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Doomsday?: Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez +17pp 40→57¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that at least one major character will appear in Avengers: Doomsday, the upcoming MCU film. The 90% level suggests traders view character appearances as highly likely, given Marvel's typical roster strategy for ensemble films. The primary driver is Marvel Studios' established pattern of featuring multiple established heroes in Avengers events. What would move this probability: official cast announcements from Marvel, trailer releases showing specific characters, or director/studio statements about the film's scope. The biggest resolution catalyst is the film's theatrical release and any official cast reveals in trailers or press materials before then. Current market data shows varied confidence across individual characters—Doctor Strange trades at 80% while Spider-Man variants range from 25% to 64%—suggesting uncertainty about which specific heroes will participate rather than doubt about the film featuring recognizable characters overall.

### Key factors

- Tom Holland Spider-Man contract trades at 64¢ while Andrew Garfield Spider-Man trades at 25¢, indicating market assigns much higher probability to MCU continuity appearance than multiverse inclusion
- Benedict Cumberbatch Doctor Strange has the highest individual character probability at 80¢, suggesting traders expect established Avengers to return
- Jonathan Majors/Kang contract trades at only 17¢ despite being the stated villain, potentially reflecting casting uncertainty or narrative direction doubts
- The 90% leader probability significantly exceeds all individual character probabilities, indicating markets expect multiple characters but disagree on which specific ones
- 24-hour volume concentrates on Spider-Man and Doctor Strange contracts, suggesting these are primary focal points for trader conviction changes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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