# Which cities will Russia enter by December 31

> Closed. Last odds frozen 14 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-cities-russia-enter-december-31
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Dopropillia at 38%
- Runner-up: Druzkhivka at 34%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dopropillia | 38¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31-dopr-polymarket-0x6557ff312837c0707d82bc2def893572289e012cff21a264593c6551f85d7e50 |
| Druzkhivka | 34¢ | ±0 | $50 | polymarket | /markets/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31-druz-polymarket-0xb7d6db12a48e282585501f57871e6e482b9e2c41c68d1d5019bdbd2902209b69 |
| Sloviansk | 21¢ | +1pp | $27 | polymarket | /markets/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31-slov-polymarket-0xd4aa5c6bd2a179244d98ba714dba4441e4bf5f99f27a657b8d967f8f67cfe041 |
| Kramatorsk | 15¢ | +1pp | $500 | polymarket | /markets/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31-kram-polymarket-0x357ee5e692658d4dae5b7fe59bae12cef029f2ebffb5452f4d439a1934d84211 |
| Kherson | 10¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31-kher-polymarket-0x465ca3fde976d3f147697893414b341b11a4e624e97e6e9b106c4d02cae4a443 |
| Zaporizhia | 9¢ | +1pp | $61 | polymarket | /markets/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31-zapo-polymarket-0xe97ddd7cfb8633ca0cc05f8033e662b92f6186b9763e96d8fa734c6c83009b35 |
| Sumy | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31-sumy-polymarket-0x4d3395a91ab99cb40dc56cd4debc360ad167ac51137b862aa4ff1b5c28a22561 |
| Kharkiv | 6¢ | — | $935 | polymarket | /markets/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31-khar-polymarket-0x3998586e8a30f2ba516c073859c98bfcc37e6abdc06e0652fa7e7259a0de6584 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Dopropillia | Druzkhivka | Sloviansk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 37 | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | 36 | — | 22 |
| 2026-06-07 | 40 | 28 | 22 |
| 2026-06-11 | 33 | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 29 | 20 |
| 2026-06-15 | 37 | 33 | 21 |
| 2026-06-17 | 38 | 34 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-14 · Dopropillia +5pp 34→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-15 · Druzkhivka +3pp 30→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Russia will capture at least one of eight specified Ukrainian cities by year-end 2026. The 36% probability for Dopropillia as the leading outcome suggests traders view territorial gains as plausible but not the base case. Market prices vary significantly across cities—Sloviansk and Kramatorsk trade at 22 cents each, indicating moderate expected exposure, while Sumy and Zaporizhia are priced much lower at 9 cents. The current distribution reflects assessments of Russian military capability, Ukrainian defensive capacity, and the pace of ongoing operations. Key drivers include frontline dynamics in eastern Ukraine, available Russian forces for offensive operations, and logistics constraints. Resolution depends entirely on confirmed Russian control of these cities, which would be established through territorial administrative changes or military occupations recognized by relevant sources before December 31, 2026.

### Key factors

- Current Russian frontline positions relative to each city and distance-to-advance required
- Availability of Russian reserves and operational tempo compared to 2025-2026 baseline
- Ukrainian defensive capacity, counteroffensive capability, and Western military support levels
- Historical pace of Russian territorial acquisition in similar operational phases (meters/weeks)
- International recognition thresholds for what constitutes 'entering' or controlling a city

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-cities-russia-enter-december-31
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-cities-russia-enter-december-31
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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