# Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027

> Beyond Meat leads at 55%, runner-up 52% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.107Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Beyond Meat at 55%
- Runner-up: Workhorse at 52%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $38

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beyond Meat | 55¢ | ±0 | $37 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-be-polymarket-0x3b0a46c8c275bba4b392332b87408219c9b3faaa0c9f89c3db8650aa5e1a6e6e |
| Workhorse | 52¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-wo-polymarket-0x28c2427adaa725c391ba431f2dc88c91e06c91cd0ab59a6fc6e5a756c6f48f97 |
| Rivian | 51¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-ri-polymarket-0xe33fc14e23f7a6fd771119e9136a1b3ff198aa2f2ca2a1c458ba0c92f19a1885 |
| Lucid | 44¢ | −4pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-lu-polymarket-0xfb037f25bd5c9a5854438de4aba47636d5d98930cef104ca1f2d3840f00c1a37 |
| JetBlue Airways | 44¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-je-polymarket-0x1153d31ded5fc1376b76f6bef55541eea123808af3a2a4235e4e912ed455dc40 |
| Perplexity AI | 44¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-pe-polymarket-0x26e8d0bee0a23b92a89f1ce45ae5585ce78d845b526eed5da4eecbe855cc7083 |
| C3.ai | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-c3-polymarket-0x90ec7b973fe26d67cc057a0a27ead8f7bc3a206f477a7b65fc82a0dbcc0ac96b |
| Xerox | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-xe-polymarket-0xb40d75cef495ea643cb075b2a37f96abe3e1c208afbbe6b5e08feb667814191f |
| MicroStrategy | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-mi-polymarket-0xef4450a0de3206fe6bcdf210e3ffe0e220a8a264a6cf6004fee3de236a1fa42b |
| Carvana | 11¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-ca-polymarket-0x59078030ca6aec7f665381d02e705ee44b5d5bed8789a8812898df488acc75e0 |
| Lovable | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-lo-polymarket-0x3b148212ad6bc28733c72a1670ede3d06ba468c7afdc9769a96b154dd9bda5e7 |
| SoundHound AI | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-so-polymarket-0x90e31c6c510cd523a45c6de9771ee47ed7e5a8a24585ca7abf9ea20f9f357e5d |
| Anthropic | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-an-polymarket-0x7b042404794ea1ad15789e959e854973c324fc798ace16824f28aa6b7d745317 |
| OpenAI | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-op-polymarket-0x78317a8e1f53e5da44926cd52d0fcad1b32fa13085e843ee2d1e75d6ae299045 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Beyond Meat | Workhorse | Rivian |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 57 | 55 | — |
| 2026-04-11 | 53 | 55 | 17 |
| 2026-04-24 | 53 | 53 | 30 |
| 2026-04-25 | 46 | 52 | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 53 | 53 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 55 | 49 |
| 2026-05-08 | 65 | 51 | 49 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · C3.ai −26pp 48→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Beyond Meat +10pp 53→63¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Lovable −10pp 18→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Perplexity AI −9pp 46→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Perplexity AI +7pp 33→40¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that at least one major company will file for bankruptcy before the end of 2026. The leading contracts instead track acquisition activity, suggesting traders may be pricing in M&A consolidation as a potential outcome for distressed or underperforming firms. The current 54% level indicates meaningful but not overwhelming concern about corporate insolvencies in the near term. Key factors driving this assessment include macroeconomic conditions, interest rate environment, and sector-specific pressures. The probability would shift upward if major earnings disappointments emerge or credit conditions tighten; it would decline if economic growth remains stable and refinancing costs remain manageable. Resolution will depend on actual bankruptcy filings through December 2026, with no single catalyst but rather cumulative corporate performance data throughout the remainder of the year.

### Key factors

- Current macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policy on interest rates affect refinancing costs for leveraged companies
- Sector-specific stress indicators: energy (BP contract at 23¢ suggests acquisition risk), software (Zoom, GitLab, Snapchat), and cloud infrastructure (Nebius) face distinct pressures
- Liquidity conditions and credit spreads for investment-grade and high-yield debt; widening spreads historically correlate with bankruptcy risk
- Trading volume concentration: top contract (23¢ for BP) has $2,325 24h volume versus thin volume on smaller positions, indicating low conviction in specific names
- Timeline constraint: only 7 months remain until end-2026; bankruptcy requires either immediate distress or rapid deterioration rather than gradual decline

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-companies-announce-bankruptcy

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