# Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31

> Google leads at 58%, runner-up 36% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-companies-have-1-ai-model-december-31
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.361Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Google at 58%
- Runner-up: OpenAI at 36%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google | 58¢ | +2pp | $975 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-polymarket-0x79307c54be4721fda43bac290c137d32a674a4b0322940e86a94524f0c1fc268 |
| OpenAI | 36¢ | ±0 | $444 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-polymarket-0x6f3c4a19afe0621f5bfd39a18625ec392dcd695c34a708f02a52c96ed3436773 |
| xAI | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-polymarket-0xa796a992017ac45b99a33d108f65e2eff86fd4daf9e51d44a65aee815d83f36b |
| Meta | 16¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-polymarket-0x1acdbd22cd0bba4d5a09b506330c5e299dd7820310621d1c609bf9e9be19a3a0 |
| DeepSeek | 10¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-polymarket-0xd9eaacb65adac13538f933532cb6fe4415dba2d42a9f460457a7ecb10ea63374 |
| Microsoft | 9¢ | — | $953 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-polymarket-0x5ea9363a7dcccda830cad72d005d5afa597857fecda881b998b433c02c27b513 |
| Alibaba | 9¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-polymarket-0x076729655c5138c73a60e73e2633cddf2b72fa055deb452b3f07bd608df06fa9 |
| Baidu | 9¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-polymarket-0x680560695f3bd759633b9b748fc3582cebe6fc5d5c2bc9b8c2cfe9df36249eeb |
| Z.ai | 9¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-polymarket-0xa43f0f313de2599ae9d8fe7080037e12316f6c58caf8c26c86b1f613a7a4fc3c |
| Moonshot | 9¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-polymarket-0xd6e6a84dff227314b82e5ebc66f62611ef4f6c25a349c591f16bd699184a1e83 |
| ByteDance | 9¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-polymarket-0xe650ad00ab52a1daae5395f7b7d34678019dcf8a407e50e5b0cc731680b366e6 |
| Amazon | 8¢ | — | $529 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-polymarket-0xab86b9ea5d963e336a38cf9cb9993f2aacfb321dbe10a91410355beee30db511 |
| Mistral | 7¢ | — | $1 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-polymarket-0xff372e02c13dfbbe388958727c0d7e37a3ff00d6349031e2854427d83fc0c8ce |
| Meituan | 7¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-polymarket-0xec0012c7d5a63f984424b8d00e60e8b09e43ed12f55c0f10803a7756e06ac2f5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Google | OpenAI | xAI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | 76 | — | 22 |
| 2026-05-25 | 78 | 34 | — |
| 2026-05-26 | 80 | 39 | — |
| 2026-05-27 | — | 46 | — |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 46 | — |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · OpenAI +7pp 39→46¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · OpenAI +5pp 34→39¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Google will be recognized as having the #1 AI model by year-end 2026. The 80% probability significantly favors Google over competitors like OpenAI (24%), with margins driven by Google's existing model portfolio, computational resources, and recent research output. Market pricing suggests confidence in Google's continued leadership, though this assumes the definition of "#1" remains consistent with current industry benchmarks. Key catalysts include major model releases from competitors, performance evaluations on standardized benchmarks, and whether new capabilities in reasoning, multimodality, or domain-specific tasks shift market perception of which model leads. The seven-month timeframe allows for meaningful technical advances that could alter current rankings.

### Key factors

- Google's Gemini series current performance on published benchmarks (MMLU, coding, reasoning tasks) compared to GPT-4, Claude, and other major releases
- Timeline and capabilities of OpenAI's next major model release relative to Google's planned updates
- Definition and measurement criteria for "#1 model" (whether based on benchmarks, adoption, or institutional preference)
- Computational and training scale differences between competitors' latest model releases
- Publicly announced model launches or capability claims from Alibaba, Meta, Baidu, or Microsoft between now and December 31

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-companies-have-1-ai-model-december-31
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-companies-have-1-ai-model-december-31

## License

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