# Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 1 contract — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-companies-have-1-ai-model-june-30
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:10.933Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $310

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 8¢ | +1pp | $310 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30-polymarket-0x1ea03c4c7961402d2e494e7382aa127ed94745f08e11f21829f0e622fc1874a4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 13 |
| 2026-05-25 | 9 |
| 2026-06-01 | 9 |
| 2026-06-05 | 8 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · OpenAI −3pp 10→7¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 17% probability that OpenAI will be recognized as having the #1 AI model by June 30, 2026. However, market data shows significant disagreement: Anthropic's contract for best AI model trades at 68 cents, while OpenAI's identical contract trades at just 6 cents, suggesting the question definition or timeline may be creating divergent valuations. The key driver of current pricing appears to be recent model releases and benchmark performance—traders are weighing whether OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or other competitors will achieve clear technical leadership in the next 8 weeks. Major model announcements, benchmark results, and real-world performance metrics in enterprise or research contexts would likely shift these probabilities significantly. The resolution will depend critically on how "#1 AI model" is defined and measured at month-end.

### Key factors

- Massive discrepancy between Anthropic's 68¢ price and OpenAI's 6¢ for ostensibly the same question suggests contract terms, timeframes, or success criteria differ materially between markets
- OpenAI has been incrementally releasing model improvements rather than major breakthroughs recently, while Anthropic has emphasized constitutional AI development
- Google commands 23¢ pricing, indicating meaningful probability three-way competition exists among the top three AI labs
- Current 17% price reflects OpenAI as statistical favorite but far from consensus—runner-up sits at 16%, indicating high uncertainty and fragmented market expectations
- Resolution depends on how "#1 model" is operationalized (benchmark leaderboards, enterprise adoption, research community consensus, or subjective expert panels)—definitional clarity would likely trigger repricing

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-companies-have-1-ai-model-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-companies-have-1-ai-model-june-30

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