# Which companies will the US take a stake in

> Rigetti leads at 80%, runner-up 76% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-companies-us-take-stake
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:07.443Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Rigetti at 80%
- Runner-up: D-Wave at 76%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $134

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rigetti | 80¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-rigett-polymarket-0xf179f57bcd9d754aee6245c7816d523f3dabcd476e6f26c4b9f6cd8108e72a9f |
| D-Wave | 76¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-d-wave-polymarket-0xb8aa75c192ef213dd9c9c3762feacfd84d6f331f0b8893c45c8fb5ec6f1ebf59 |
| OpenAI | 66¢ | +19pp | $6 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-openai-polymarket-0x1166beee8722f02d9c79f60252c6eba339e32c699414cbd363c0973d55fc261b |
| IonQ | 59¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-ionq-polymarket-0x3e318837fa58267e33e8af09dea56455c74ccb948627cfd0ae3bb6e69fa54788 |
| Micron | 57¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-micron-polymarket-0xec8dc021aeb7c770c0f551da37b9f1aee4e7b97834ab12f51b524ed269c8487a |
| Anduril | 56¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-anduri-polymarket-0x11c846106277b0b0eccd71a5c7297073c646bf5a19a8ef92b2f9305e97e2be38 |
| GlobalFoundries | 50¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-global-polymarket-0x29de69eea09afcb0cde8301eca3e6fcabf826dcb8a8dafacc0d20f3404a735ff |
| Eli Lilly | 49¢ | −6pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-eli-li-polymarket-0xe5ea729b91b19f0930ecd4b892ad33a571e5f739355c09334bdb31f322a7abcb |
| Palantir | 44¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-palant-polymarket-0x1adad084557cf5ab0fc502e9ea0a44964a8c88e90d72953bd22417f49a5341a5 |
| Anthropic | 40¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-anthro-polymarket-0x3445836e43dca8145d09435480dde2d09348b6a585e26c42cc227b7dae7555b1 |
| Boeing | 39¢ | −1pp | $91 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-boeing-polymarket-0x6e2c5a9e54e6eead88dca03bd6de7a357c154856724b9d4a27d8dc9a2628d27c |
| Freeport-McMoRan | 36¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-freepo-polymarket-0xfafdaf9f3f99130049785151e16e60f11bbd890359e0dcf6f6f9fab85dfc6a0a |
| TikTok US / Bytedance | 33¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-tiktok-polymarket-0xe61206a9db350886fbc62f56da9b6f7343a931b9e609038c486e9048aac1246c |
| Pfizer | 31¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-pfizer-polymarket-0x1e4ae24fb0a3f204679a8d860d34b0935381d35a6c7bc0713ee9e56451cf1d3c |
| TSMC | 25¢ | +5pp | $23 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-tsmc-polymarket-0xf0cfdff5567f3b71dca486d4be95501fc515e402f0c6e098a118c9d52f931d00 |
| Nvidia | 18¢ | −1pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-nvidia-polymarket-0xf86df821bd41f20c0b67674bfc03a7db9408bc336103ffdf9675cb8e313797f1 |
| Lockheed Martin | 18¢ | ±0 | $3 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-lockhe-polymarket-0x063bcc769a02477cbaa9bafd576934fb9dddced3bb671b0b7bbf8f691d627969 |
| Samsung Electronics | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-samsun-polymarket-0xbabf4d97e342229baf65bfb0d7127c09a5bec0d76a7beb49bc47b1d9cf5c4091 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Rigetti | D-Wave | OpenAI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 21 | 21 | 31 |
| 2026-05-25 | 85 | 81 | 25 |
| 2026-06-01 | 89 | 79 | 28 |
| 2026-06-07 | 80 | 76 | 51 |
| 2026-06-08 | 79 | — | 70 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · Palantir +27pp 21→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · TSMC +26pp 8→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · TikTok US / Bytedance −21pp 47→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · OpenAI +19pp 51→70¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · Anthropic +18pp 23→41¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the aggregate forecast that OpenAI will receive a direct equity stake from the U.S. federal government by a specified date. The 51% probability suggests near-parity between outcomes where the government does and does not take such a stake. The outcome depends primarily on policy shifts within the executive or legislative branches regarding critical technology companies, alongside broader industrial policy trends around semiconductor and AI capabilities. The resolution will likely be driven by official government announcements, regulatory filings, or legislative action—moments that carry binary clarity. Secondary outcomes like stakes in Palantir, Spirit Airlines, Nvidia, GlobalFoundries, or Lockheed Martin show fragmented conviction across multiple sectors, with defense and advanced technology as focal areas.

### Key factors

- Executive branch policy direction on AI and technology sector equity stakes following 2024-2026 policy statements
- Congressional legislative action or appropriations specifically authorizing federal equity stakes in private companies
- Official government announcements regarding capital deployment in OpenAI, Palantir, or competing technology firms
- Market pricing of OpenAI at 51% versus runner-up at 45% indicates close competition but no consensus outcome
- Absence of prior precedent for large-scale direct equity stakes by U.S. federal government in major tech companies outside defense/aerospace sectors

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-companies-us-take-stake
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-companies-us-take-stake

## License

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