# Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 16 contracts — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-company-has-1-ai-model-april
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.379Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2031-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 36% / Polymarket 31% — 5pp spread
- 24h volume: $46K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 85¢ | ±0 | $16K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-anthro-polymarket-0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac5247ffc586a193f1bc3bc839cf9ce993c2471e0d599cca |
| OpenAI | 4¢ | ±0 | $13K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-openai-polymarket-0x734c6c32a62f8a27035a222e45fc388d59eeffe89bb31ab26054bc29bcc3eee7 |
| Google | 10¢ | −2pp | $10K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-google-polymarket-0x0bd1b836a2494f80aaee62927cf01e5f6fceb19114e96fc517c6440aea4576e4 |
| OpenAI | 30¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-open |
| xAI | 5¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-xai |
| Anthropic | 60¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-anth |
| Anthropic | 68¢ | −2pp | $973 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0xd0e97d28b706d26f47ada6b739674efe7768bf7a407481008474d5a0d4c4c55a |
| Anthropic | 86¢ | −1pp | $596 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-c-polymarket-0x0811ed7f71c2466d04f9ba801c0e21c9cfb016385cdff97b5c9984df0fa5801e |
| OpenAI | 4¢ | +1pp | $482 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0x06a7a20c1c36f9f894d759237644e2dd4b446c048f2bfda6d8bc2b99313002c6 |
| Google | 5¢ | −1pp | $451 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-goog |
| Google | 28¢ | +2pp | $378 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0x9a43c9ddeef87245a713570da886d5637666b4a3dba886162df4b271978ee5f3 |
| Google | 9¢ | +1pp | $222 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-c-polymarket-0xa3681c6be3faf6b4f05918ed0bc9786e41e600d9882c335907b5a3402bf93494 |
| OpenAI | 3¢ | +1pp | $94 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-c-polymarket-0x2bdf398464f6ab3c974eaf70a1f1f0dbd63d96507a2605f7e7cf9bbbbd78bbc8 |
| United States | 55¢ | +3pp | $52 | kalshi | /markets/which-country-will-be-the-next-to-send-humans-to-t-kalshi-kxmoonman-31-usa |
| Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act | 60¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-amends-the-food-and-nutritio-kalshi-kxbills-hrca |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026-sp-polymarket-0x76c1a69f2b0a7fcfa97b56ddbeaad1981a8cb3d8f24c1adce62ffa2d010ebbe0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 36 |
| 2026-05-25 | 32 |
| 2026-06-01 | 37 |
| 2026-06-08 | 43 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Anthropic −17pp 88→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · Google +17pp 7→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · Anthropic +4pp 54→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Anthropic +4pp 55→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Anthropic +4pp 82→86¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-company-has-1-ai-model-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-company-has-1-ai-model-april

## License

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