# Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 16 contracts — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-company-has-3-ai-model-april
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:10.019Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2031-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 36% / Polymarket 31% — 5pp spread
- 24h volume: $46K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 85¢ | ±0 | $16K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-anthro-polymarket-0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac5247ffc586a193f1bc3bc839cf9ce993c2471e0d599cca |
| OpenAI | 4¢ | ±0 | $13K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-openai-polymarket-0x734c6c32a62f8a27035a222e45fc388d59eeffe89bb31ab26054bc29bcc3eee7 |
| Google | 10¢ | −2pp | $10K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-google-polymarket-0x0bd1b836a2494f80aaee62927cf01e5f6fceb19114e96fc517c6440aea4576e4 |
| OpenAI | 30¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-open |
| xAI | 5¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-xai |
| Anthropic | 60¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-anth |
| Anthropic | 68¢ | −2pp | $973 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0xd0e97d28b706d26f47ada6b739674efe7768bf7a407481008474d5a0d4c4c55a |
| Anthropic | 86¢ | −1pp | $596 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-c-polymarket-0x0811ed7f71c2466d04f9ba801c0e21c9cfb016385cdff97b5c9984df0fa5801e |
| OpenAI | 4¢ | +1pp | $482 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0x06a7a20c1c36f9f894d759237644e2dd4b446c048f2bfda6d8bc2b99313002c6 |
| Google | 5¢ | −1pp | $451 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-goog |
| Google | 28¢ | +2pp | $378 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0x9a43c9ddeef87245a713570da886d5637666b4a3dba886162df4b271978ee5f3 |
| Google | 9¢ | +1pp | $222 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-c-polymarket-0xa3681c6be3faf6b4f05918ed0bc9786e41e600d9882c335907b5a3402bf93494 |
| OpenAI | 3¢ | +1pp | $94 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-c-polymarket-0x2bdf398464f6ab3c974eaf70a1f1f0dbd63d96507a2605f7e7cf9bbbbd78bbc8 |
| United States | 55¢ | +3pp | $52 | kalshi | /markets/which-country-will-be-the-next-to-send-humans-to-t-kalshi-kxmoonman-31-usa |
| Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act | 60¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-amends-the-food-and-nutritio-kalshi-kxbills-hrca |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026-sp-polymarket-0x76c1a69f2b0a7fcfa97b56ddbeaad1981a8cb3d8f24c1adce62ffa2d010ebbe0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 36 |
| 2026-05-25 | 32 |
| 2026-06-01 | 37 |
| 2026-06-08 | 43 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Anthropic −17pp 88→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · Google +17pp 7→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · Anthropic +4pp 54→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Anthropic +4pp 55→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Anthropic +4pp 82→86¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 32% probability that a specific company (other than OpenAI or Anthropic) holds the #3 ranked AI model by end of April 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about which organization will secure third place in a competitive landscape where OpenAI and Anthropic currently dominate public benchmarks. Market participants are weighing whether established players like Google, or emerging competitors like xAI, can develop models that rank third by that date. Upward pressure would come from new model releases or benchmark results showing stronger performance from challengers; downward pressure would result from dominant incumbents maintaining their lead or consolidating positions. Resolution depends on how major AI labs rank their models against each other using standard evaluation metrics by the specified deadline.

### Key factors

- OpenAI and Anthropic currently price significantly higher (combined ~$1.10) than any third-place contender on the June benchmark contracts, suggesting market confidence in their continued dominance
- Google maintains 12¢ pricing for best model at end of June, indicating structural doubt about its ability to challenge the top two despite existing AI capabilities
- xAI's 4¢ price on the coding-specific contract (December 2026) shows investors assign low probability to emergence of viable competitors from newer entrants within the timeframe
- Kalshi contracts price 3 percentage points higher than Polymarket, suggesting different analytical weightings of third-place probability across venues
- No imminent scheduled model releases or benchmark events are mentioned in the contract list, indicating uncertainty driven by general competitive dynamics rather than near-term catalysts

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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