# Which company has the best AI model end of April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 5 contracts — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-company-has-best-ai-model-april
Updated: 2026-09-07T15:20:51.741Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 21¢ | +4pp | $435 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-open |
| xAI | 6¢ | −2pp | $335 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-xai |
| Anthropic | 66¢ | +3pp | $256 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-anth |
| Netflix | 10¢ | +4pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/which-company-will-release-a-fully-ai-generated-mu-kalshi-kxaistreamseries-27-net |
| Google | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-goog |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | 30 |
| 2026-08-31 | 24 |
| 2026-09-07 | 67 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-05 · Anthropic +11pp 58→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-05 · OpenAI −9pp 29→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-04 · Anthropic +8pp 50→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-04 · OpenAI −7pp 36→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-02 · OpenAI +6pp 25→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 22% probability reflects market expectations that Google will be identified as having the best AI model by end of April 2026. The assessment is primarily shaped by the coding model category, where market participants are pricing Anthropic (57¢) as the current front-runner, with OpenAI (35¢) as a strong competitor. The probability would increase if Google demonstrates significant coding performance improvements or releases a model that outperforms competitors on established benchmarks. It would decrease if rival companies release notably superior models or achieve better results on standardized coding tasks. The main resolution event is the scheduled assessment at April 30, 2026, when models will be evaluated against performance metrics. The market is currently divided on leadership, with no single company commanding overwhelming confidence, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about technical capabilities across competitors over the next ten months.

### Key factors

- Anthropic currently prices significantly higher (57¢) than Google (5¢) in the direct coding model comparison, indicating market belief in Anthropic's technical lead
- OpenAI holds 35¢ of the coding model contract, establishing three-way competition where no player has dominant consensus confidence
- Google's 5¢ pricing on its own coding model contract contrasts with its 22¢ overall average, suggesting the market views Google as less likely to lead specifically in coding versus other AI categories
- The deadline is April 30, 2026, making this a 10-month forecast window during which multiple new model releases and benchmark publications could substantially shift probabilities
- Trading volume concentration on Anthropic (57¢ contract, $916 24h volume) versus Google's contract ($2576 24h volume) suggests disagreement about evaluation criteria or timeline

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-company-has-best-ai-model-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-company-has-best-ai-model-april

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.