# Which company has the best Coding AI model end of April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 17 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-company-has-best-coding-ai-model-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:20:55.225Z
Category: technology
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 23% / Polymarket 30% — 7pp spread
- 24h volume: $18K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 5¢ | +1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-openai-polymarket-0x734c6c32a62f8a27035a222e45fc388d59eeffe89bb31ab26054bc29bcc3eee7 |
| Google | 24¢ | ±0 | $4K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-google-polymarket-0x0bd1b836a2494f80aaee62927cf01e5f6fceb19114e96fc517c6440aea4576e4 |
| Anthropic | 69¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-anthro-polymarket-0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac5247ffc586a193f1bc3bc839cf9ce993c2471e0d599cca |
| Anthropic | 57¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-anth |
| OpenAI | 24¢ | −1pp | $399 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-open |
| Disney | 18¢ | ±0 | $379 | kalshi | /markets/which-company-will-release-a-fully-ai-generated-mu-kalshi-kxaistreamseries-27-dis |
| Netflix | 26¢ | +2pp | $331 | kalshi | /markets/which-company-will-release-a-fully-ai-generated-mu-kalshi-kxaistreamseries-27-net |
| Anthropic | 68¢ | −1pp | $256 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0xd0e97d28b706d26f47ada6b739674efe7768bf7a407481008474d5a0d4c4c55a |
| OpenAI | 8¢ | −1pp | $225 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-c-polymarket-0x2bdf398464f6ab3c974eaf70a1f1f0dbd63d96507a2605f7e7cf9bbbbd78bbc8 |
| Anthropic | 70¢ | ±0 | $145 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-c-polymarket-0x0811ed7f71c2466d04f9ba801c0e21c9cfb016385cdff97b5c9984df0fa5801e |
| OpenAI | 9¢ | −1pp | $92 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0x06a7a20c1c36f9f894d759237644e2dd4b446c048f2bfda6d8bc2b99313002c6 |
| Google | 15¢ | ±0 | $56 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-c-polymarket-0xa3681c6be3faf6b4f05918ed0bc9786e41e600d9882c335907b5a3402bf93494 |
| Amazon | 17¢ | ±0 | $46 | kalshi | /markets/which-company-will-release-a-fully-ai-generated-mu-kalshi-kxaistreamseries-27-ama |
| Google | 11¢ | −2pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-goog |
| Google | 21¢ | −2pp | $36 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0x9a43c9ddeef87245a713570da886d5637666b4a3dba886162df4b271978ee5f3 |
| xAI | 5¢ | −1pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-xai |
| The Clearing Company | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-dcms-self-certify-sports-event-contracts-by-polymarket-0x3ba33ab25533500c51823066e91beff79b46e1618deab32823c5871f0c0bf066 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 27 |
| 2026-04-19 | 28 |
| 2026-04-26 | 27 |
| 2026-05-03 | 29 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · The Clearing Company −22pp 47→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · The Clearing Company −17pp 25→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Anthropic +11pp 58→69¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Anthropic +9pp 46→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Google −9pp 38→29¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-company-has-best-coding-ai-model-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-company-has-best-coding-ai-model-april

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.