# Which company has the second best AI model end of April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 7 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-april
Updated: 2026-06-29T02:20:49.120Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 56¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-anth |
| OpenAI | 32¢ | ±0 | $211 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-open |
| Google | 3¢ | −1pp | $209 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-goog |
| Amazon | 10¢ | −1pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/which-company-will-release-a-fully-ai-generated-mu-kalshi-kxaistreamseries-27-ama |
| Disney | 10¢ | −1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/which-company-will-release-a-fully-ai-generated-mu-kalshi-kxaistreamseries-27-dis |
| Netflix | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-company-will-release-a-fully-ai-generated-mu-kalshi-kxaistreamseries-27-net |
| xAI | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-xai |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 20 |
| 2026-06-15 | 23 |
| 2026-06-22 | 20 |
| 2026-06-28 | 31 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · OpenAI −4pp 39→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Anthropic +3pp 56→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Anthropic −3pp 59→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · OpenAI +3pp 36→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Netflix −3pp 11→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a company other than the leader will hold the second-best AI model by end of April 2026. The 25% aggregate probability suggests traders view this outcome as unlikely but plausible. Two main factors drive the current level: the concentration of recent AI breakthroughs among a few dominant players, which makes it difficult for a second-place competitor to emerge, and uncertainty about which capability dimension matters most for ranking models—coding performance, reasoning, multimodal abilities, or general instruction-following. The outcome depends heavily on how model benchmarks are evaluated in late April, particularly whether official leaderboards and third-party evaluations show a clear separation between first and second place, or whether technical performance remains contested across different domains.

### Key factors

- Benchmark methodology: Whether end-of-April evaluations prioritize coding benchmarks (favoring Anthropic per Kalshi data) versus general reasoning tasks affects which company places second
- Polymarket-Kalshi divergence of 7 percentage points suggests material disagreement on likelihood; Polymarket traders price it higher, possibly reflecting greater uncertainty about what 'best model' means
- Recent contract data shows heavy Anthropic positioning across multiple timeframes (June style control at 67¢, December coding at 59¢), indicating concentrated market belief in their competitive position
- The 20% Kalshi average versus 27% Polymarket average may reflect different trader bases with different definitions of model quality or different confidence in April timeline data
- Top trading volume concentrates on 'which company has best' contracts, not second-best, suggesting secondary rankings receive less liquidity and sharper opinion divergence

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-april

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.