# Which company has the second best Coding AI model end of April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 18 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-company-has-second-best-coding-ai-model-april
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.308Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 22% / Polymarket 26% — 4pp spread
- 24h volume: $14K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google | 24¢ | ±0 | $8K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-google-polymarket-0x0bd1b836a2494f80aaee62927cf01e5f6fceb19114e96fc517c6440aea4576e4 |
| OpenAI | 7¢ | −1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-openai-polymarket-0x734c6c32a62f8a27035a222e45fc388d59eeffe89bb31ab26054bc29bcc3eee7 |
| Anthropic | 65¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-anthro-polymarket-0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac5247ffc586a193f1bc3bc839cf9ce993c2471e0d599cca |
| Anthropic | 58¢ | +1pp | $436 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-anth |
| Anthropic | 63¢ | +4pp | $260 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0xd0e97d28b706d26f47ada6b739674efe7768bf7a407481008474d5a0d4c4c55a |
| Netflix | 22¢ | +2pp | $190 | kalshi | /markets/which-company-will-release-a-fully-ai-generated-mu-kalshi-kxaistreamseries-27-net |
| OpenAI | 19¢ | ±0 | $123 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-open |
| Disney | 16¢ | ±0 | $110 | kalshi | /markets/which-company-will-release-a-fully-ai-generated-mu-kalshi-kxaistreamseries-27-dis |
| Amazon | 21¢ | ±0 | $61 | kalshi | /markets/which-company-will-release-a-fully-ai-generated-mu-kalshi-kxaistreamseries-27-ama |
| Google | 21¢ | +1pp | $42 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0x9a43c9ddeef87245a713570da886d5637666b4a3dba886162df4b271978ee5f3 |
| Anthropic | 51¢ | −1pp | $35 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-c-polymarket-0x0811ed7f71c2466d04f9ba801c0e21c9cfb016385cdff97b5c9984df0fa5801e |
| OpenAI | 10¢ | ±0 | $30 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0x06a7a20c1c36f9f894d759237644e2dd4b446c048f2bfda6d8bc2b99313002c6 |
| xAI | 3¢ | −1pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0xe563417f1554295028487f40053056a79d880efc30b9fb0ddaefb967a7ee0da1 |
| Google | 11¢ | −1pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-goog |
| The Clearing Company | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-dcms-self-certify-sports-event-contracts-by-polymarket-0x3ba33ab25533500c51823066e91beff79b46e1618deab32823c5871f0c0bf066 |
| Google | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-c-polymarket-0xa3681c6be3faf6b4f05918ed0bc9786e41e600d9882c335907b5a3402bf93494 |
| xAI | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-xai |
| OpenAI | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-c-polymarket-0x2bdf398464f6ab3c974eaf70a1f1f0dbd63d96507a2605f7e7cf9bbbbd78bbc8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 26 |
| 2026-04-25 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 27 |
| 2026-05-08 | 33 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Anthropic −18pp 69→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Google +14pp 17→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Anthropic +11pp 58→69¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Anthropic +7pp 53→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Google −7pp 24→17¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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## License

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