# Which company has the third best AI model end of April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 7 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-company-has-third-best-ai-model-april
Updated: 2026-06-29T02:20:50.940Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 56¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-anth |
| OpenAI | 32¢ | ±0 | $211 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-open |
| Google | 3¢ | −1pp | $209 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-goog |
| Amazon | 10¢ | −1pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/which-company-will-release-a-fully-ai-generated-mu-kalshi-kxaistreamseries-27-ama |
| Disney | 10¢ | −1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/which-company-will-release-a-fully-ai-generated-mu-kalshi-kxaistreamseries-27-dis |
| xAI | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-xai |
| Netflix | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-company-will-release-a-fully-ai-generated-mu-kalshi-kxaistreamseries-27-net |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 20 |
| 2026-06-15 | 23 |
| 2026-06-22 | 20 |
| 2026-06-28 | 31 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · OpenAI −4pp 39→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Anthropic +3pp 56→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Anthropic −3pp 59→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · OpenAI +3pp 36→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · xAI +3pp 5→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 25% probability represents the estimated chance that a specific company ranks third in AI model capability as of end of April 2026. The slight divergence between trading venues (22% on Kalshi vs. 27% on Polymarket) suggests uncertainty about which companies will occupy the top positions and how to define third place. The probability reflects that leadership in AI capabilities remains contested and frequently reshuffled. Key drivers include continued model releases from major players, benchmark performance data, and how evaluators measure "best" across different use cases. The interpretation depends heavily on whether third place refers to general-purpose models, specialized domains like coding, or overall market perception.

### Key factors

- No clear consensus exists on ranking methodology—definitions vary between coding ability, general reasoning, multimodal performance, or broader commercial adoption
- Recent model releases and benchmark results from Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI significantly influence rankings, with coding-specific metrics showing different hierarchies than general benchmarks
- The substantial volume and price movement in June-dated contracts (Anthropic at 64¢ vs. Google at 26¢) indicates market focus on near-term model releases rather than April positions
- Trading volume concentrates on June endpoints rather than April, suggesting April rankings carry less predictive interest or have lower resolution clarity
- Cross-venue gap of 5 percentage points indicates legitimate disagreement about third-place likelihood rather than information asymmetry

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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