# Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30 — UAE

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 13 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-countries-conduct-military-action-against-iran-april
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:08.977Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $748

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 16¢ | −4pp | $568 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x30a1d62f46f58d036cccd96b0e468ff3165e238cd3bef03441370ad3c1fd1b86 |
| Germany | 56¢ | +5pp | $64 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-ge-polymarket-0x77abd7f7b1d92d7273479a8e12aa200641a82fc73053dd73502091ac14cce524 |
| 8 | 29¢ | +6pp | $50 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x713ab27f31c1d8080ea3b9c21c8a021609f8fcb7aad13a87b8b069265e7fdfda |
| 9 | 27¢ | +1pp | $26 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x5759fb62768738cda38232974fa399fd8bfbbe6c04d891a2c4cdb71731f8f692 |
| Turkey | 94¢ | +1pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-tu-polymarket-0xebb9a87581bb1de91adc9bf9d1a9528cc203976a7f3ab2c9f98b8ef8ff531f30 |
| Japan | 38¢ | +2pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-ja-polymarket-0xbff26f3f5b87131b491a07d8f493d76a1319e8a03d6f526a55b466aa57328df0 |
| Ukraine | 18¢ | ±0 | $5 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-uk-polymarket-0x89522d57b6a2cca2f737872db3ca4adcbaf0252fda9a265d90d549e7aee7bd43 |
| European Union | 10¢ | +1pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0xdb3df04fc73bd716ab5619aebaaaa42a85c10b0faed27b654b5e5ec5714f500f |
| The Netherlands | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-20-polymarket-0x759ceaf5eb99bed7eed8a42ad74593a25d6114c88b0475df5e2dba7ad155e4df |
| Lebanon | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30-l-polymarket-0x274cec202608757e62a0cf64ec63a3a814a6cc23a1bff1819b437362c5c16732 |
| Greece | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-20-polymarket-0xecf32b871ad1ab9ca961ce1a12d5758c59b07bdcb99f649a1dbe3f07e7cb4bde |
| Taiwan | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-ta-polymarket-0x4eea504d6a9a609f2e6fe6b88de6327755282192ebbae4b3b170eac91b611214 |
| 11 | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x4fa0dfa81109ade4f993b63f5ea4c9ee5e01ff546b7ddc9708d441ca691eb39a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 29 |
| 2026-05-25 | 25 |
| 2026-06-01 | 26 |
| 2026-06-07 | 18 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Greece −8pp 22→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · 10 −7pp 18→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · 10 +6pp 11→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · 8 +6pp 24→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · 9 −6pp 26→20¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-countries-conduct-military-action-against-iran-april
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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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