# Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026

> Turkey leads at 94%, runner-up 78% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-countries-donald-trump-visit
Updated: 2026-06-08T02:20:07.837Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Turkey at 94%
- Runner-up: United Kingdom at 78%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $683

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 94¢ | +1pp | $263 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-tu-polymarket-0xebb9a87581bb1de91adc9bf9d1a9528cc203976a7f3ab2c9f98b8ef8ff531f30 |
| United Kingdom | 78¢ | +1pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-un-polymarket-0x8782d89527979fd2d97ab44448a7249cdcf83cfddb0c2968216b4ad7a2d42704 |
| Germany | 59¢ | +5pp | $64 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-ge-polymarket-0x77abd7f7b1d92d7273479a8e12aa200641a82fc73053dd73502091ac14cce524 |
| South Korea | 39¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-so-polymarket-0x3ebd55f194a3645e64dceb8f78bf6b9682c24f778b8a20e0ec67e1ddd9bdcf58 |
| Japan | 38¢ | +2pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-ja-polymarket-0xbff26f3f5b87131b491a07d8f493d76a1319e8a03d6f526a55b466aa57328df0 |
| Israel | 38¢ | −5pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-is-polymarket-0x572971eede0909d69662fe3e09d7c6ada9065ee792b6fa14548e85d6af90ee0b |
| Italy | 34¢ | ±0 | $19 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-it-polymarket-0xec25fff9ebd7b4ef5fecde23efcc876ed6b75c4870e2d0f0c03fdbe5f56364ab |
| Saudi Arabia | 34¢ | −2pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-sa-polymarket-0xa8da044bb908d46d98bfda6f2dbe2ca94007efe851e80dc4467e8856082a2a70 |
| India | 28¢ | ±0 | $25 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-in-polymarket-0x64de3843f040e3b4ea1f205c98ecd6bfc38f293d1c53790f5e1c74c8d2140615 |
| Mexico | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-me-polymarket-0x4f95cd46bd8135256e761691edad83c8e648b86cafa2e772d3084d3e35153efa |
| Canada | 24¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-ca-polymarket-0xf6279279a7d6a8f5b3389ffea499313812180672d2d13ed32a8524ebd18e3b36 |
| Pakistan | 23¢ | +1pp | $121 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-pa-polymarket-0xc1c987ae6cf96c0c676527c8dfaee295eb7aff785a00d91ca6de37e87738b72c |
| Russia | 20¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-ru-polymarket-0x40c2dd3dc9e6fb511e58e2a67141b66a97aa569e6b59c9b1f14f65e734c173d1 |
| Ukraine | 17¢ | ±0 | $5 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-uk-polymarket-0x89522d57b6a2cca2f737872db3ca4adcbaf0252fda9a265d90d549e7aee7bd43 |
| Syria | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-sy-polymarket-0x5667b4eec59f39aaee22309f1ecf15ef9a3a3847bbfb705dd098fa5fd5007e9b |
| Oman | 13¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-om-polymarket-0x7a1f906385ab2567abba95ad7c758137c6402ff415aa259dccaacd8c8f50d9b5 |
| North Korea | 10¢ | +1pp | $119 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-no-polymarket-0x035b7cc0833f825c4476352a1d5edeb870fc8250776803352177d44d34b03c6e |
| Belarus | 9¢ | −2pp | $38 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-be-polymarket-0x5bbddae21d682d0e88da526cf40a628ba62724ebc8f4925b72f9f92909e8959b |
| Taiwan | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-ta-polymarket-0x4eea504d6a9a609f2e6fe6b88de6327755282192ebbae4b3b170eac91b611214 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Turkey | United Kingdom | Germany |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 62 | 83 | 54 |
| 2026-05-25 | 79 | 85 | 58 |
| 2026-05-31 | 82 | 78 | 56 |
| 2026-06-01 | 84 | 72 | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 92 | 78 | 62 |
| 2026-06-06 | 93 | 79 | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Pakistan −9pp 30→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · Canada −9pp 34→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · North Korea −7pp 20→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · Oman −7pp 21→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · Turkey +6pp 87→93¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the aggregated betting market's assessment that Donald Trump will visit China at some point during 2026. At 94%, the contracts suggest traders view such a visit as highly probable, though not certain. The high confidence likely reflects Trump's stated interest in direct engagement with China on trade and geopolitical issues, combined with his pattern of high-profile international travel. Key factors driving this include ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, Trump's historical willingness to meet with Chinese leadership, and the absence of major diplomatic breakdown suggesting a visit would be ruled out. The probability could shift significantly based on trade war escalation, sanctions, or announced diplomatic freezes. Resolution depends on confirmation of any Trump visit to China occurring before December 31, 2026, making calendar year-end the implicit deadline for this contract settlement.

### Key factors

- Trump's publicly stated interest in engaging directly with China on trade and strategic issues, versus his historical pattern of high-profile summits with major powers
- Current state of U.S.-China diplomatic relations and trade negotiations throughout 2026, including any announced summits or official visit schedules
- Contrasting market prices on other destinations (France at 90%, Turkey at 69%, Germany at 51%) suggest China is viewed as distinctly more likely than European visits
- The contract's multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means only one country's visit counts as settlement, creating competitive dynamics between options
- Any formal announcement of Trump's international travel schedule or confirmed calendar commitments through end of 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-countries-donald-trump-visit
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-countries-donald-trump-visit
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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