# Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen

> Israel leads at 13%, runner-up 13% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-countries-make-eric-adams-citizen
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:23.588Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Israel at 13%
- Runner-up: China at 13%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-make-eric-adams-a-citizen-isr-polymarket-0xcf6da782c7895351ac51bd74303c0e5ea7af58d331715d78e0aa4442317d49db |
| China | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-make-eric-adams-a-citizen-chi-polymarket-0x36d50cef6b69ba0626ac71e3556c40967a56ac7345e9e6f1a6f53c4c9b9c4ad2 |
| Sudan | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-make-eric-adams-a-citizen-sud-polymarket-0xb6af5851cfe8a02aeda300706f0b18ce7927fcb36d43150fcffebf3cfb5f0997 |
| Russia | 8¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-make-eric-adams-a-citizen-rus-polymarket-0xa7f232327cca11c61b4d8bb5194c4034f45e1301e68e2e4fb06c71e47d65876e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Israel | China | Sudan |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | — | — | 9 |
| 2026-05-08 | 13 | 12 | 8 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 13 | 8 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates the probability that Eric Adams, the current Mayor of New York City, will be granted citizenship by at least one country by a specified resolution date. The 12% probability reflects low but non-zero odds, split roughly equally between Israel and China as the most-favored outcomes, with Russia and Sudan at lower probabilities. Market movement would depend on concrete diplomatic developments—such as formal citizenship applications, statements from Adams or relevant governments, or significant changes in US-Israel or US-China relations that might alter incentive structures. The primary uncertainty driver is whether Adams faces circumstances that would motivate seeking foreign citizenship, such as legal jeopardy in the US or a major diplomatic opportunity. Resolution likely depends on official government announcements or public record documentation of citizenship status.

### Key factors

- Eric Adams' current legal status and any pending federal or state charges that might incentivize alternative citizenship
- Official statements or policy positions from Israeli, Chinese, Russian, or Sudanese governments regarding citizenship eligibility or interest in Adams
- Whether Adams makes or publicly discusses any citizenship applications, sponsorships, or formal inquiries with foreign governments
- Changes in US political relationships or Adams' diplomatic role that could create conditions for citizenship offers
- The resolution date of the market contract and whether Adams takes any relevant actions before that deadline

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-countries-make-eric-adams-citizen
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-countries-make-eric-adams-citizen

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.