# Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30

> Turkey leads at 94%, runner-up 56% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-countries-send-warships-through-strait-of-hormuz
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.966Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2031-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Turkey at 94%
- Runner-up: Germany at 56%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 49% / Polymarket 27% — 22pp spread
- 24h volume: $223

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 94¢ | +1pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-tu-polymarket-0xebb9a87581bb1de91adc9bf9d1a9528cc203976a7f3ab2c9f98b8ef8ff531f30 |
| Germany | 56¢ | +5pp | $64 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-ge-polymarket-0x77abd7f7b1d92d7273479a8e12aa200641a82fc73053dd73502091ac14cce524 |
| United States | 55¢ | −1pp | $87 | kalshi | /markets/which-country-will-be-the-next-to-send-humans-to-t-kalshi-kxmoonman-31-usa |
| China | 43¢ | +1pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/which-country-will-be-the-next-to-send-humans-to-t-kalshi-kxmoonman-31-prc |
| Japan | 38¢ | +2pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-ja-polymarket-0xbff26f3f5b87131b491a07d8f493d76a1319e8a03d6f526a55b466aa57328df0 |
| Ukraine | 18¢ | ±0 | $5 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-uk-polymarket-0x89522d57b6a2cca2f737872db3ca4adcbaf0252fda9a265d90d549e7aee7bd43 |
| The Netherlands | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-20-polymarket-0x759ceaf5eb99bed7eed8a42ad74593a25d6114c88b0475df5e2dba7ad155e4df |
| Greece | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-20-polymarket-0xecf32b871ad1ab9ca961ce1a12d5758c59b07bdcb99f649a1dbe3f07e7cb4bde |
| Israel | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0x9121e50fc11b2041db7cfb1e966e964bbceeffc9360d66e6895341e31b61edf0 |
| European Union | 10¢ | +1pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0xdb3df04fc73bd716ab5619aebaaaa42a85c10b0faed27b654b5e5ec5714f500f |
| Taiwan | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-ta-polymarket-0x4eea504d6a9a609f2e6fe6b88de6327755282192ebbae4b3b170eac91b611214 |
| Lebanon | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30-l-polymarket-0x274cec202608757e62a0cf64ec63a3a814a6cc23a1bff1819b437362c5c16732 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Turkey | Germany | United States |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 62 | 54 | 49 |
| 2026-05-25 | 79 | 58 | 52 |
| 2026-05-31 | 82 | 56 | 56 |
| 2026-06-01 | 84 | — | 54 |
| 2026-06-05 | 92 | 62 | 55 |
| 2026-06-06 | 93 | — | 54 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Greece −8pp 22→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · Turkey +6pp 87→93¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · Japan +6pp 34→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · Germany +5pp 56→61¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · Germany +5pp 57→62¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-countries-send-warships-through-strait-of-hormuz
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-countries-send-warships-through-strait-of-hormuz
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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