# Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027

> Mexico leads at 34%, runner-up 27% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-countries-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:10.876Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Mexico at 34%
- Runner-up: India at 27%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $50

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0x5cbca9adf861c7096259efa6ebaba8e69e90f00b8e5f77b272ed13070f9a2ee7 |
| India | 27¢ | −3pp | $32 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0x533aab0d99851ea6dccf14861b8b7bb5026a40a15718769f8cc519d93380b391 |
| United Kingdom | 25¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0xdabf29e1d9a73105559248dc8cae409e87f7affb1f15ad39660ec2a4c6e6fed7 |
| South Korea | 24¢ | +1pp | $4 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0xcc9b5eb0fb5b7fa763bee8c0d37cb4559a8cc0336dce6dc34b54d072720c807d |
| Australia | 20¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0x7531c660ca20317d50ca9dd3a3b1df7659509bb6a415ac1f026c63be5061afb3 |
| Canada | 17¢ | ±0 | $3 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0x81e8f9fd1c08c597b716ea800a97c6d04d60c985a2c388bc6d77a0f85e643df8 |
| Vietnam | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0xd60f9b0c5ce8c507e463731b67017dec027eea02bf4bfd3c3dccb364fc2262b7 |
| South Africa | 16¢ | +1pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0xc77d51450d7d97d1239b003889d0899410c68c383378d65aabf04b77666a4488 |
| Israel | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0x9121e50fc11b2041db7cfb1e966e964bbceeffc9360d66e6895341e31b61edf0 |
| Japan | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0xfe61b06cd6643f489a4781a327cdf06bfd639e95151d938c801758a4bea41b73 |
| Indonesia | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0xffe86f7d81d3834d1a9f71c7d9700c62d53bc051f0fcd6efbadeb1c26c48837a |
| Taiwan | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0x42520d88b4fa9d58ea74d3579b14398e76873a88c09bbfc9e0e801694a547d5c |
| European Union | 11¢ | +1pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0xdb3df04fc73bd716ab5619aebaaaa42a85c10b0faed27b654b5e5ec5714f500f |
| Pakistan | 10¢ | −2pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0x85ad30282d095dd426c2b8c61a0f12c5fd1e751d1dd30830351001ced5fda42e |
| Russia | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0x5b2d1c35c4510f926d8d026b61ed29816485c1cef9051a251e4b8672026075da |
| Brazil | 8¢ | ±0 | $3 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0x66cbd462cd4e08dacb506dcc0df32b8a7ccf29d1c2f039f85e36eb768026b729 |
| Argentina | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0x2b23c92cb20b728bb52e34d431dd982ceb907a4ab255f7412776e8163ca89fe5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mexico | India | United Kingdom |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 19 | 24 | 25 |
| 2026-05-25 | — | 26 | — |
| 2026-05-26 | — | 31 | 24 |
| 2026-05-27 | 41 | 28 | 24 |
| 2026-06-01 | 39 | 26 | 25 |
| 2026-06-06 | 35 | 28 | — |
| 2026-06-07 | 36 | — | — |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · India +5pp 26→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · Brazil −4pp 16→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · Mexico −4pp 43→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · India +3pp 26→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · India −3pp 29→26¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Trump will negotiate and conclude at least one new trade deal with a foreign nation by the end of 2026. The 46% level suggests traders view this as somewhat more likely than not, though with substantial uncertainty. Market activity centers on which specific country might be first: EU trade negotiations historically take months, while smaller deals (particularly with Israel or other bilateral partners) could move faster. The primary factors are Trump's stated priority on trade renegotiation, Congressional approval timelines, and whether other nations prioritize deal-making in 2026. The single biggest catalyst will be any formal announcement of trade negotiations entering advanced stages or a framework agreement being reached with a major trading partner.

### Key factors

- Trump's public statements and executive orders regarding trade priorities have typically preceded formal negotiation launches within 2-6 months
- Congressional support and approval authority requirements vary by deal type—bilateral agreements often move faster than multilateral frameworks
- Trading volume concentration on EU outcome (3¢ price, $1101 volume) versus Israel (17¢ price, $33 volume) suggests significant disagreement on which region Trump targets first
- No scheduled major trade negotiations with specific end-2026 deadlines are currently public, creating baseline uncertainty about timeline and scope
- The runner-up contract at 24% suggests roughly one-quarter of traders believe no new deals materialize, indicating meaningful execution risk

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-countries-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-countries-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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