# Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027

> Somaliland leads at 36%, runner-up 18% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-country-join-abraham-accords
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.280Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Somaliland at 36%
- Runner-up: Syria at 18%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $25

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somaliland | 36¢ | ±0 | $8 | polymarket | /markets/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-202-polymarket-0x82ec29323ad31bab12038200ab276db8ebc596a0a8ae8a5f8db2dfb6d2cb4942 |
| Syria | 18¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-202-polymarket-0x985b12455df199faf9ea77159bbcaa425dc5c4664fb07fd54f471ceb5d1d8e7f |
| Azerbaijan | 16¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-202-polymarket-0x0150e8238df20ad29b32b8880f5a8b096252ad55c819caf4019d85052e3d89d9 |
| Lebanon | 13¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-202-polymarket-0xd826bae66455a0b931a6bdabf81f4102c7476409d9ab55b77183e5c8db064f13 |
| Oman | 13¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-202-polymarket-0xc1bd3bfadea871e846ad2e7a09cdf56da632137a4d5e96da08b0134975ce4237 |
| Saudi Arabia | 12¢ | −1pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-202-polymarket-0x15f442103bfad36b0dcc569d9698b4d020d12a2c935b9ac9050bb190a9238ec6 |
| Kuwait | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-202-polymarket-0x4e4d65ad049ce46e0d4939ce4d00bcb95134cdbd0c1d39b6e63a4235fccae888 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Somaliland | Syria | Azerbaijan |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 29 | 19 | 20 |
| 2026-04-24 | 39 | 23 | 22 |
| 2026-04-25 | 42 | 21 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 | 20 | 12 |
| 2026-05-07 | 37 | 17 | 20 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 18 | 16 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Lebanon +10pp 9→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Azerbaijan +7pp 13→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Lebanon −5pp 14→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Kuwait +4pp 9→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Azerbaijan −4pp 20→16¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 36% probability reflects trader expectations that at least one additional country will sign the Abraham Accords framework before the end of 2026. The accords, which normalize Arab-Israeli relations, have expanded beyond initial signatories (UAE, Bahrain) to include Morocco, Sudan, and others. Current pricing suggests moderate confidence in further expansion within the next seven months. The probability is elevated by ongoing diplomatic engagement in the region and normalization momentum, but tempered by political complications in potential signatory countries and the absence of imminent announcements. Key drivers include whether Arab League states coordinate positions on new signings and how the Israeli-Palestinian conflict dynamics evolve. The resolution depends on official announcements of accords signings rather than preliminary talks, making the timeline uncertain despite active diplomatic efforts.

### Key factors

- No major country has publicly announced plans to join the accords in 2026, suggesting current momentum may have plateaued after Sudan's complications
- Morocco's accession in late 2020 remains one of the most recent major additions, indicating the pool of willing signatories may be narrowing
- Ongoing Israeli-Palestinian tensions create political risk for Arab states considering normalization, which could delay or prevent new signings through end-2026
- The accords framework has expanded to 7+ countries since 2020, demonstrating sustained diplomatic momentum that could support additional signings
- Any new accords signing requires formal government action and public announcement, creating a discrete, verifiable resolution point for this contract

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-country-join-abraham-accords

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