# Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-dcms-selfcertify-sports-event-contracts-june-30
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Aristotle at 19%
- Runner-up: ForecastEx at 6%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $49

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aristotle | 19¢ | −1pp | $49 | polymarket | /markets/which-dcms-self-certify-sports-event-contracts-by-polymarket-0xd5d09b7ac4a4ada87f082bb75fa8f96970d4a6c1d21a591e0615bf3eb71a56a2 |
| ForecastEx | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-dcms-self-certify-sports-event-contracts-by-polymarket-0xac6cdcff08221e3167862de7f05310714870e9c0a9390ffa678c670a61d8f2ab |
| CBOE | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-dcms-self-certify-sports-event-contracts-by-polymarket-0xe751b33bbc4b73449b94de8b5d6a91a68bc0793f2c5c3de3fad913326c83fc84 |
| Small Exchange | 5¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-dcms-self-certify-sports-event-contracts-by-polymarket-0x7ddaa807ca7fe702e7e26c22d48a77a971cfc734ad63a9c278156105e9b22e74 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aristotle | ForecastEx | CBOE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 54 | 10 | — |
| 2026-06-04 | 42 | 11 | 7 |
| 2026-06-06 | 37 | 11 | 7 |
| 2026-06-12 | 49 | 12 | — |
| 2026-06-15 | 34 | 9 | 5 |
| 2026-06-16 | 30 | 8 | 6 |
| 2026-06-17 | 20 | 7 | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 19 | — | — |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that at least one Digital Commodity Market (DCM) will self-certify sports event contracts for the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards category by June 30, 2026. The 63% probability suggests markets perceive meaningful but uncertain regulatory acceptance. Current trading concentrates on specific sports properties—particularly the 151st Kentucky Derby at 32¢ and NHL on ESPN at 36¢—indicating uncertainty about which event will ultimately qualify. The probability would rise if a DCM formally announces self-certification plans or if regulatory guidance explicitly permits sports Emmy broadcasts as eligible contracts. It would fall if regulators issue stricter guidance limiting self-certification authority. The critical resolution date arrives when the Emmy Awards air and market operators make formal certification decisions, likely in late May or early June 2026.

### Key factors

- No DCM has yet announced formal self-certification of a sports Emmy contract as of May 3, 2026, suggesting regulatory or operational hurdles remain
- Trading volume is modest ($824–$3,418 per contract in 24 hours), indicating limited institutional conviction or market participation
- The leading contract (Kentucky Derby at 32¢) reflects fragmentation across multiple eligible events rather than consensus on a single winner
- June 30 deadline provides approximately 8 weeks for DCMs to navigate regulatory approval and technical implementation
- Self-certification authority itself depends on whether regulators have clarified DCM permissions for Emmy-related sports contracts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-dcms-selfcertify-sports-event-contracts-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-dcms-selfcertify-sports-event-contracts-june-30

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