# Which exchange will SpaceX list on — NASDAQ

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-exchange-spacex-list
Updated: 2026-06-13T19:21:11.942Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: NASDAQ at 96%
- Runner-up: Other at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $78

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NASDAQ | 96¢ | ±0 | $78 | polymarket | /markets/which-exchange-will-spacex-list-on-nasdaq-polymarket-0x286de7625bdb877116ebfd9fcd8022a97a8dfd4998ee4bb5c4fac789a2d0d1a6 |
| Other | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-exchange-will-spacex-list-on-other-polymarket-0x88ebefa24eeb7783b28296e7e94171c0c62be56afcfaa6079d311ad9995372cc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | NASDAQ | Other |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 99 | — |
| 2026-05-17 | — | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | — | 2 |
| 2026-06-05 | 100 | — |
| 2026-06-06 | 100 | 2 |
| 2026-06-07 | — | 1 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates a strong market consensus that SpaceX will list on NASDAQ rather than NYSE or remain private. The 91% price reflects expectations shaped by several market dynamics: Elon Musk's stated preference for NASDAQ (where Tesla trades), regulatory clarity around space company valuations, and the exchange's track record attracting high-growth technology firms. The probability could move downward if Musk signals a preference for NYSE, if regulatory changes affect SpaceX's timeline, or if market conditions deteriorate significantly. Upward movement would likely follow official IPO announcements favoring NASDAQ. The critical catalyst is any formal IPO filing or regulatory disclosure that specifies the intended listing venue. Until SpaceX announces an IPO date and exchange, this remains dependent on stated intentions and historical precedent rather than binding commitments.

### Key factors

- Elon Musk's public statements about preferring NASDAQ align with Tesla's listing history
- Related contract shows SpaceX IPO before June 1, 2026 priced at only 10 cents, suggesting uncertain near-term timing
- NASDAQ has successfully listed major aerospace and defense firms historically
- No formal IPO filing or announcement has been made as of the question date
- Market may be extrapolating from Musk's stated preferences rather than concrete corporate guidance

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-exchange-spacex-list
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-exchange-spacex-list
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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