# Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards

> The Odyssey leads at 47%, runner-up 33% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-film-get-most-oscar-nominations-99th-academy-awards
Updated: 2026-06-08T11:20:09.614Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-28

## Headline

- Leader: The Odyssey at 47%
- Runner-up: Dune: Messiah at 33%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $54

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-film-will-get-the-most-oscar-nominations-at-polymarket-0x409d7e08b28d9b828fd71478c470055da1be83e55435edc569427cd9e300e161 |
| Dune: Messiah | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-film-will-get-the-most-oscar-nominations-at-polymarket-0xa7d02a01ae63cbaa3e01d31333c43018f27b49a3c99b57e13a4ac7ebbacce1f8 |
| The Social Reckoning | 15¢ | −2pp | $27 | polymarket | /markets/which-film-will-get-the-most-oscar-nominations-at-polymarket-0x30f0abcca4045359388feecfec803916f6f7b04e8df123614e533586fe78121d |
| Disclosure Day | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-film-will-get-the-most-oscar-nominations-at-polymarket-0x7820fd1e1090197acfe7f26b935baa491d1594c0982a37c3c0ca22323fb62430 |
| Wild Horse Nine | 10¢ | −1pp | $27 | polymarket | /markets/which-film-will-get-the-most-oscar-nominations-at-polymarket-0x1daa2f31b7526baf4604eacd2c3e6c14d798862486b2939480593001eb64aef3 |
| Project Hail Mary | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-film-will-get-the-most-oscar-nominations-at-polymarket-0x1a7c6656098abf4de8e475bd097ab63e6fba250a5dde06221bc5c762bf0a7d9e |
| Wuthering Heights | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-film-will-get-the-most-oscar-nominations-at-polymarket-0x9930de4bd20494cd01234d7f8137defd6903178b9ba423cb8ed151f80081a3f7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | The Odyssey | Dune: Messiah | The Social Reckoning |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 50 | — | — |
| 2026-05-11 | 49 | 21 | — |
| 2026-05-15 | 48 | — | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | 46 | 37 | 1 |
| 2026-05-25 | 46 | 33 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 46 | 34 | 1 |
| 2026-06-06 | — | 33 | 13 |
| 2026-06-07 | 47 | — | 14 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | — | 12 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · The Social Reckoning +10pp 1→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · Wild Horse Nine +6pp 3→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · Wild Horse Nine +3pp 9→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · Wild Horse Nine −3pp 12→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · Wild Horse Nine +3pp 7→10¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The current 53% probability reflects market expectations that one particular film will receive more Oscar nominations than its three competitors at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony. This leading contender maintains a notable edge over the second-place option at 19%, suggesting moderate confidence rather than overwhelming consensus. The probability level is driven primarily by the film's perceived critical reception, industry momentum during awards season, and its genre or studio positioning relative to competitors. Major factors affecting this outcome include the breadth and quality of a film's technical achievements, the voting patterns of Academy members in particular categories, and how production companies campaign for recognition. The resolution date of this market will be the Oscar nominations announcement, which typically occurs in January following the awards eligibility year. Until that official announcement, the probability may shift based on emerging critical reviews, box office performance, and signals from early-season award ceremonies.

### Key factors

- The leading film's nomination count will be directly determined by Academy voters' ballots cast during the official nomination voting period
- Critical reception and major film festival recognition (Venice, Berlin, etc.) historically correlate with nomination volume across multiple categories
- Campaign spending and studio political relationships have documented effects on voting outcomes within Academy demographics
- Technical achievement in cinematography, sound, editing, and visual effects typically drives higher nomination counts than narrative categories alone
- The specific category eligibility rules and submission deadlines determine which films qualify and can be nominated in each award

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-film-get-most-oscar-nominations-99th-academy-awards
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-film-get-most-oscar-nominations-99th-academy-awards

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