# Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30

> Overpass leads at 16%, runner-up 8% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-maps-valve-remove-june-30
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.310Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Overpass at 16%
- Runner-up: Mirage at 8%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $143

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overpass | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-maps-will-valve-remove-by-june-30-overpass-polymarket-0xfd34ebc39322ab79390b3f14e4262faf0a17a4973d4f056e70af3da50fbff755 |
| Mirage | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-maps-will-valve-remove-by-june-30-mirage-polymarket-0x032641e55eca053d2332a5eb7a3c33c18cbcb846128de6d3283732cb79f1bea4 |
| Ancient | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-maps-will-valve-remove-by-june-30-ancient-polymarket-0x5618557a1668b4310307a350ec1e66ec8207ed13356595dcc0151ee80a01473c |
| Inferno | 7¢ | −5pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/which-maps-will-valve-remove-by-june-30-inferno-polymarket-0x31d66e5f3c280d50981daf0c91423442743929ae119172a732c1dbeb674a3074 |
| Nuke | 6¢ | −1pp | $140 | polymarket | /markets/which-maps-will-valve-remove-by-june-30-nuke-polymarket-0xbd7e6af9c1ef1c20f7f988a41766844fddd096f7ff70cb0ea8a7de77a0999d7c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Overpass | Mirage | Ancient |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 23 | 13 | 22 |
| 2026-04-24 | 17 | 13 | 21 |
| 2026-04-25 | 42 | 14 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 22 | 9 | 14 |
| 2026-05-08 | 15 | 9 | 8 |
| 2026-05-09 | 16 | — | 8 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Overpass −18pp 35→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Overpass +14pp 8→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Overpass +13pp 22→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Nuke +12pp 10→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Nuke −9pp 18→9¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 35% likelihood that Valve will remove at least one map from its competitive pool by June 30, 2026. The current probability reflects limited recent map removals from Valve's active rotation, as the company typically maintains stability in the map pool to preserve competitive integrity and player investment. The main factors pushing this probability upward are community feedback on underperforming maps, balance issues, or technical problems that could necessitate removal. The biggest uncertainty revolves around Valve's map management philosophy and whether any pending balance patches or competitive season changes might trigger a removal decision. A scheduled competitive season update or announcement from Valve about map pool changes would directly resolve much of this uncertainty. Current trading volume remains relatively low, suggesting limited conviction across traders.

### Key factors

- Valve has not removed maps from the active competitive pool in recent seasons, suggesting institutional resistance to removal outside extraordinary circumstances
- Community sentiment and pro-player feedback on specific maps directly influence Valve's curation decisions
- Scheduled competitive season patches or map pool announcements between now and June 30 would be the primary catalyst for resolution clarity
- Technical exploits, balance issues, or performance problems with existing maps could trigger emergency removal
- Valve's historical track record shows preference for iterative balance changes over map removal as a policy response

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-maps-valve-remove-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-maps-valve-remove-june-30

## License

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