# In which month will SpaceX IPO

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-month-spacex-ipo
Updated: 2026-06-13T19:21:11.942Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June | 97¢ | ±0 | $3K | polymarket | /markets/in-which-month-will-spacex-ipo-june-polymarket-0xd80f3e7fc5ea2f2d5a162aaa589b9ba067be58c9a4b411ff08a22b82ffcd5dfd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 92 |
| 2026-06-01 | 95 |
| 2026-06-08 | 100 |
| 2026-06-11 | 100 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Markets currently estimate a 66% probability that SpaceX will complete its initial public offering in June 2026, based on aggregated contract pricing across multiple prediction platforms. This timeline reflects market participants' assessment of regulatory approval timelines, company readiness, and market conditions. The probability could shift based on whether Elon Musk confirms or delays IPO plans, changes in macroeconomic conditions affecting capital markets, or regulatory developments at the SEC. The key catalyst for resolution will be any official announcement from SpaceX leadership regarding the IPO date, which would immediately clarify timing beyond current speculation. Currently, markets show high confidence (95%) that SpaceX will IPO before 2027, but substantial uncertainty about whether this occurs before July 1st (79%) versus specifically in June (66%).

### Key factors

- SpaceX has not made an official public announcement confirming an IPO date or timeline as of May 2026
- Market pricing shows sharp probability drops between June (66%), July (79%), August (84%), suggesting June is viewed as the most likely near-term window
- Trading volume on the June contract ($36.5M in 24h) vastly exceeds other timeframe contracts, indicating this is the focal point of market attention and debate
- Overall 95% probability SpaceX IPOs before 2027 indicates near-certainty the event occurs in 2026, with disagreement centered on specific month
- Regulatory approval from SEC and macro capital markets conditions would be primary factors causing upward or downward movement from current 66% level

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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