# Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026

> Avengers: Doomsday leads at 69%, runner-up 25% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 38 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-week
Updated: 2026-05-28T19:20:07.196Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Avengers: Doomsday at 69%
- Runner-up: Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 25%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $80

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avengers: Doomsday | 69¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-week-in-2026-aveng-polymarket-0xa05d8a684b40450d2b8a8fdf07df0b50089de97f675bb4489ffa81b00abb60c4 |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-week-in-2026-spide-polymarket-0x5e38b77551a62c844b4250a569ec2652f522b01312e428842bf03337405a555a |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 5¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-week-in-2026-the-s-polymarket-0xc92669ffb44a1544c5baf855dd3fa637da6d06c3d2fe419442bd4a1bbd723ab2 |
| Dune: Messiah | 4¢ | −1pp | $80 | polymarket | /markets/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-week-in-2026-dune-polymarket-0x5416ffa09e4ba9a1762a293a2d22bd8b815dbb0ffa3bb6018c23589d9ca0376e |
| Toy Story 5 | 3¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-week-in-2026-toy-s-polymarket-0xbaf6c46a63acfeb05de6db22cb5041d13f7e57a0c9e45f3a1c8cd83ab6416089 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Avengers: Doomsday | Spider-Man: Brand New Day | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 77 | — | — |
| 2026-05-10 | 76 | 20 | — |
| 2026-05-11 | 76 | 25 | 14 |
| 2026-05-14 | 62 | 31 | 10 |
| 2026-05-21 | 64 | 14 | 6 |
| 2026-05-24 | 68 | 22 | 6 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 23 | 5 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · Spider-Man: Brand New Day +7pp 14→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · Toy Story 5 +6pp 4→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Toy Story 5 −6pp 10→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · The Super Mario Galaxy Movie +5pp 9→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · The Super Mario Galaxy Movie −5pp 10→5¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-week
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-movie-has-biggest-opening-week

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.