# Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026

> Avengers: Doomsday leads at 73%, runner-up 16% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-weekend
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:09.430Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Avengers: Doomsday at 73%
- Runner-up: Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 16%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $186

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avengers: Doomsday | 73¢ | +1pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026-av-polymarket-0x14d327328063504ab74b2ab11fe68ad305525fafc70effcd5ba5c5c688971988 |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026-sp-polymarket-0x76c1a69f2b0a7fcfa97b56ddbeaad1981a8cb3d8f24c1adce62ffa2d010ebbe0 |
| The Odyssey | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026-th-polymarket-0x342eaa2a3fe31eb5a20da27b589937a190a3f2f55fc83909df66e5f3db7d0f9e |
| Toy Story 5 | 4¢ | −2pp | $185 | polymarket | /markets/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026-to-polymarket-0x4a3bae05585996851511be08b544323fe6af6f274e5d464603ed26a224f3e78a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Avengers: Doomsday | Spider-Man: Brand New Day | The Odyssey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 15 | — |
| 2026-05-13 | 63 | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | — | 16 | 2 |
| 2026-05-24 | 72 | 22 | — |
| 2026-05-25 | — | 19 | — |
| 2026-05-26 | — | 20 | 2 |
| 2026-05-30 | — | 18 | — |
| 2026-05-31 | 73 | — | — |
| 2026-06-03 | — | — | 3 |
| 2026-06-04 | 74 | 17 | 5 |
| 2026-06-07 | — | 16 | 8 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 76% probability indicates that market participants believe one specific film will achieve the largest opening weekend in 2026 with roughly three-to-one odds. The current leader appears to be "The Devil Wears Prada 2," supported by contract pricing showing majority expectation for a 70-80 million dollar opening. The prediction hinges on two primary uncertainties: the actual opening weekend performance of this sequel and whether competing releases scheduled throughout 2026 might outperform it. The resolve catalyst is the first weekend box office results for the film's theatrical release, which will provide definitive data against all other 2026 releases. Market confidence reflects prior performance of similar franchise revivals and current studio marketing signals, though actual audience reception and competing titles' strength remain unknown variables that could significantly shift probabilities before the outcome settles.

### Key factors

- The market assigns 93% confidence to "The Devil Wears Prada 2" opening in the 70-80 million dollar range versus 80-90 million, suggesting consensus around specific revenue forecasts
- No other competing films show substantial contract volume or pricing in available data, indicating either limited awareness of alternatives or genuine market belief in this film's dominance
- The 76% leader price is substantially higher than runner-up at 15%, reflecting significant market concentration rather than close competition
- Opening weekend box office results are deterministic and publicly reported within days of release, providing clear resolution without interpretation
- The question structure requires identifying the single largest opening weekend across all 2026 releases, making performance relative to all competing titles the critical variable

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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