# Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026

> New Jersey leads at 97%, runner-up 77% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-states-donald-trump-visit
Updated: 2026-05-05T08:05:31.787Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: New Jersey at 97%
- Runner-up: California at 77%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $125

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Jersey | 97¢ | +5pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-new-j-polymarket-0x1ddefd397bf6ba4afaf5fedbfb22041d7b0a42393880b243f8a5652b698aac48 |
| California | 77¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-calif-polymarket-0x9bedf93343909c762a295fe3968147d3241de7255ddb9be13cfb1c89900739f1 |
| New Mexico | 66¢ | +21pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-new-m-polymarket-0xe7350d938688fd39e01f5110596ae637bd55257469176f2268554efede2d49cf |
| Wisconsin | 66¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-wisco-polymarket-0xeb1b76a27fa9de2ac42b8abe0c564ea0766cf47b95c5d522bc760e4a50e11ef6 |
| Illinois | 63¢ | −10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-illin-polymarket-0xbcf57b63ecb0c09cc966552e65e30e81dec8e042cfde8ae0cab74889fdc099ca |
| Connecticut | 62¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-conne-polymarket-0xdf1a9110f5fe4f06e9589d6607eb1a8d64cdfa124776de34ce996262fb8f2342 |
| Alaska | 60¢ | +9pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-alask-polymarket-0xf72aa26303e883d64bfbb2db08e1b4717d21a0aeca14c65201bad101ea0f1829 |
| Massachusetts | 58¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-massa-polymarket-0x2e1b5f8d0e3d6832fe6886ac35aa877d34cee636869da6eeab03b2e975508d66 |
| Missouri | 58¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-misso-polymarket-0xf6eb2947a85af09821ed9e466c91498330a9b7b867845fe47084ab79f1bd5cf4 |
| Maine | 55¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-maine-polymarket-0x5a9adf456eeda692a5073251fdcf65bd90744bec8f5404c57723a34d873fca82 |
| Minnesota | 53¢ | +6pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-minne-polymarket-0x40e957d2b4a0afd5e40eae384867c957ccc08ee5b0a8c7e81294770762379932 |
| South Dakota | 53¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-south-polymarket-0x9748c3e53315dd1925186ff3f255a045c7a90f31f9ac0eaa2767b8795beea8e9 |
| Rhode Island | 50¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-rhode-polymarket-0x242a95d3261445ae49eecf8e1206e24b6d151d523a55ef6f898a66c2ec74b23d |
| New Hampshire | 48¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-new-h-polymarket-0x6170365b0760af1d5fe0293d5b41c08de1765d31cd50cc0dbf0fd5cb238950b2 |
| Vermont | 48¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-vermo-polymarket-0xea35fa0cfef147a97653f013694568931f737fb3dbd92af4da136fd3811a988d |
| Washington | 42¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-washi-polymarket-0x269b166c0af32fea1e62260cf1f21a6f51fcdc345c017eb55bf4c54f0122c877 |
| Oregon | 39¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-orego-polymarket-0xaa1153a9b1224e8496cb0ef929258c2acebb635a85affc2d1b7625ea21f87fa1 |
| Nebraska | 36¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-nebra-polymarket-0xad5b9d2eb0afdc9bd58f2ac878e3db5dbc55102d77744edda262ecde1ed8c9a4 |
| Hawaii | 33¢ | +15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-hawai-polymarket-0xbbfe39ddbef46c69ec2511b03c64b1fb6cdaf766f4a70a1f182ad6004eff68af |
| Alabama | 32¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-alaba-polymarket-0xa4b15d59a245891fdc986d6b78a221555ba8f610cc09cd458d980bcb06e7ca4e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | New Jersey | California | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 84 | 68 | 40 |
| 2026-04-21 | 96 | 62 | 28 |
| 2026-04-28 | 86 | 60 | 29 |
| 2026-05-03 | 92 | 71 | 55 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · New Mexico +21pp 34→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · California +19pp 59→78¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Hawaii −15pp 42→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Hawaii +15pp 30→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Hawaii +13pp 26→39¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates which states Donald Trump will visit during 2026, with New Jersey and New York showing the highest probabilities at 93% and 91% respectively. The elevated prices for these northeastern states likely reflect Trump's long-standing residency and business interests in the region, particularly Mar-a-Lago proximity and established political networks. Prices for other states like Oregon (67¢) and New Mexico (58¢) suggest lower expectations for visits to those regions. The main drivers of probability changes would be Trump's campaign schedule for midterm-related events, announced speaking engagements, or shifts in his political priorities. Resolution depends on tracking his actual travel throughout 2026, with the year providing ample time for multiple state visits. Political campaigns, fundraising schedules, and major party events will serve as the primary catalysts determining whether Trump expands his travel beyond his traditional strongholds.

### Key factors

- Trump's historical travel patterns show clustering in northeastern states and Florida, with New Jersey and New York as frequent destinations due to residential properties and established networks
- Campaign activity timing matters: midterm campaign season peaks in summer and fall 2026, which would likely expand his travel footprint beyond typical patterns
- Market pricing suggests high confidence in northeastern visits but uncertainty about visits to less traditionally visited states, indicating incomplete information about his 2026 schedule
- Trading volume is minimal on most contracts ($0-$24 24h volume), suggesting limited recent conviction or new information changing probabilities
- The outcome resolves based on verifiable travel records, media reports, and campaign announcements throughout 2026, making future schedule releases the primary uncertainty catalyst

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-states-donald-trump-visit
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-states-donald-trump-visit
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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