# Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms

> North Carolina leads at 97%, runner-up 95% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-states-use-new-congressional-maps-midterms
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.309Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: North Carolina at 97%
- Runner-up: California at 95%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $318

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 97¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0x295eb7d154a7093980ed8d504f15c60167e413d267e2c51d67e593b7af1e36fd |
| California | 95¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0xbd71ab4221850cb70e4d5c7e2492bcdffb4913e31f9eda8ee8f7a8e5f139f762 |
| Ohio | 94¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0x96ca8e2047e18c213fed61aed476d2d20bd7b3a59252eae45333ea913eb872db |
| Texas | 93¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0x964b5ec10d056ee0a31cd3d539205eb02aded7316941967ba17612719c30505f |
| Louisiana | 92¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0xc41817045cf6d55bb1d8f3d5b823d99f7c3abac36ccd44a321583d02eec1955a |
| Utah | 90¢ | — | $69 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0x3e9c5667a2011051b38a7f10d1c993197a7f1c4bab0d24a42634eda6daa93935 |
| Missouri | 86¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0x083d327d28955136bd82954c34276409f1ce42091f6886ab46506b5baa19885c |
| Alabama | 61¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0xa4c7f4f2df1cb17bb8c35038fde8611d9a5924b4c36d50e5a799571e58012d20 |
| Florida | 49¢ | +2pp | $25 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0x0776553f8ade1ab8bc890b79c46fef4f71e927c900b9d71817dca3d404e1e077 |
| Maryland | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0x7bbeb4fd463b7fbde581d66ed2b091130868a39aa7ebe8a394cd209c33ba1896 |
| Kansas | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0x4abe6b6e50794654b4e2f9ef0e096783c344ed51c4f1f46e51cd803d2eeb8077 |
| Georgia | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0xb4f4bf7b8b952949a6c28a0f62c6495649faacd201e84d7304914f86852d3222 |
| South Carolina | 7¢ | +2pp | $192 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0x04f0b7ffa9ac319b7ad307182641f96ebb97c3db87158aaff04dadf4126912b0 |
| Washington | 7¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0x14ca9a8df45eb80cd2d1da63b56d552768f27965c01d284305f0f1670d383aa9 |
| Indiana | 6¢ | — | $3 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0x4596d8baac5b5edc36f14d24560bdc19e16263658d930d5598a6b10fcfda3b78 |
| Virginia | 6¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0x4a4ed8429dd530b4196d1b5827e2666e768d88e373b2d1f9ff80888299fbc85e |
| New Jersey | 6¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0xf164977f87a1c21054ab65e52c02a4c310adce6e53a243a11159a2bf77e42eca |
| Wisconsin | 5¢ | ±0 | $29 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0xdd6a68f1a02ac70ba36a19d9a465409dc93e322c16b1d71e662fe060c26d1c60 |
| Nebraska | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0xe369429d00089f7022aa1b27414ca7bd51f2e8ad25361a5deaf64da96837c801 |
| Minnesota | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-th-polymarket-0x66a685c506a9a6917f29d11dee79cb02447b7119f3ea19a7c983f45f88f8fc63 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | California | Utah | Missouri |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 96 | — | 84 |
| 2026-05-27 | 96 | 90 | 82 |
| 2026-05-28 | 96 | — | 85 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · South Carolina −32pp 43→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Alabama −4pp 65→61¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Missouri +3pp 82→85¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that at least one state will implement newly drawn congressional maps for the 2026 midterm elections. Markets currently price North Carolina at 97% to use new maps, with South Carolina at 56% as the runner-up, suggesting high confidence in redistricting occurring in at least one state. The high probability reflects states' standard practice of redrawing districts following decennial censuses, though timing varies by state legislature. Courts sometimes impose maps or delay implementation. The key driver is whether redistricting lawsuits or legislative delays postpone map adoption past election cycles. Congressional redistricting typically concludes within 2-3 years post-census; with the 2020 Census establishing new baselines, most states have already finalized or are finalizing their maps. Resolution hinges on whether any state fails to implement new maps by November 2026, which would require unusual legislative gridlock or court intervention pushing maps beyond the midterm election date.

### Key factors

- North Carolina's map price of 97¢ dominates the market, indicating near-certain expectation that at least one state uses new congressional districts in 2026
- South Carolina at 56¢ represents the second-highest outcome, showing concentration of probability across a limited set of states likely to have redistricting disputes
- Four years have passed since the 2020 Census, providing ample time for most state legislatures to complete standard redistricting; delayed states are statistical outliers
- Federal courts can impose maps unilaterally if state legislatures deadlock or produce unconstitutional districts, increasing likelihood that some map reaches the midterms
- Volume concentration in South Carolina ($1,132 in 24h) and Kansas ($370) suggests uncertainty in which specific state will use new maps, not whether redistricting occurs at all

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-states-use-new-congressional-maps-midterms
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-states-use-new-congressional-maps-midterms
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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