# Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup

> No Replacement leads at 94%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 55 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-team-replace-iran-fifa-world-cup
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.864Z
Category: sports · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-31

## Headline

- Leader: No Replacement at 94%
- Runner-up: UAE at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Replacement | 94¢ | +5pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/which-team-will-replace-iran-at-fifa-world-cup-no-polymarket-0x0e77b1ad3dc69c6fcdf5d68f2bf0871453684237f5509d3eb7bbba23a8e990a7 |
| UAE | 3¢ | −1pp | $279 | polymarket | /markets/which-team-will-replace-iran-at-fifa-world-cup-uae-polymarket-0x5b3622a357683cac6e331f6777a1b4954c73ef4f6cd870af751cd86985592893 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | No Replacement | UAE |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 88 | 7 |
| 2026-05-21 | 90 | 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | 95 | 2 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-25 · No Replacement −5pp 95→90¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · No Replacement +5pp 90→95¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · No Replacement +3pp 90→93¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Iran will not be replaced by another team at the next FIFA World Cup. The 92% probability for "No Replacement" suggests strong confidence that either Iran's FIFA suspension will be lifted or the situation will remain unchanged. The dominant driver of this price is the current status of Iran's participation eligibility and any ongoing FIFA disciplinary or political proceedings. Market participants are pricing in a low likelihood that another nation steps in as Iran's substitute, with Italy and UAE trading at 3¢ and 4¢ respectively as minor alternatives. The main catalyst would be an official FIFA ruling on Iran's World Cup participation status or confirmation of replacement procedures. Resolution depends on timing of FIFA's administrative decisions and Iran's compliance with any requirements.

### Key factors

- Iran's current FIFA disciplinary status and any announced sanctions affecting World Cup eligibility
- Official FIFA statement or ruling on whether Iran's World Cup participation will proceed as scheduled
- Whether FIFA has established or communicated formal procedures for team replacement and any announced timeline
- Trading volume concentration ($658 in 24h volume for the leading contract) suggesting modest liquidity and potential price sensitivity to new information
- Historical precedent for FIFA World Cup team replacements and current geopolitical context affecting Iran's international sporting participation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-team-replace-iran-fifa-world-cup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-team-replace-iran-fifa-world-cup
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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