# Which teams will draft a QB in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Football draft

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 20 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-teams-draft-qb-1st-round-of-pro-football-draft
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:29.379Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Mestemaker | 4¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-d-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-dmes |
| Man Utd | 79¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/which-epl-teams-will-qualify-for-the-champions-lea-kalshi-kxepltop4-26-mun |
| Aston Villa | 39¢ | +1pp | $471 | kalshi | /markets/which-epl-teams-will-qualify-for-the-champions-lea-kalshi-kxepltop4-26-avl |
| Julian Sayin | 4¢ | +1pp | $284 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-j-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-jsay |
| Jeremiah Smith | 6¢ | −2pp | $238 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-j-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-jsmi |
| Dante Moore | 10¢ | ±0 | $172 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-d-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-dmoo |
| Arch Manning | 23¢ | −14pp | $169 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-a-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-aman |
| LaNorris Sellers | 5¢ | +2pp | $82 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-l-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-lsel |
| 4+ international-born players drafted | 68¢ | +4pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-international-born-players-will-be-drafte-kalshi-kxnbadraftcat-26int-4 |
| Arizona | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2027-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-ari |
| Cleveland | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cleveland-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-20-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-cle |
| Crystal Palace | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-epl-teams-will-qualify-for-the-champions-lea-kalshi-kxepltop4-26-cry |
| Miami | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2027-p-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-mia |
| West Ham | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-epl-teams-will-qualify-for-the-champions-lea-kalshi-kxepltop4-26-whu |
| CJ Carr | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-c-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-ccar |
| Chelsea | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-epl-teams-will-qualify-for-the-champions-lea-kalshi-kxepltop4-26-che |
| Fulham | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-epl-teams-will-qualify-for-the-champions-lea-kalshi-kxepltop4-26-ful |
| New York J | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-j-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-nyj |
| Burnley | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-epl-teams-will-qualify-for-the-champions-lea-kalshi-kxepltop4-26-bur |
| 3+ international-born players drafted | 90¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-international-born-players-will-be-drafte-kalshi-kxnbadraftcat-26int-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 52 |
| 2026-04-19 | 50 |
| 2026-04-26 | 25 |
| 2026-05-03 | 30 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Arch Manning −14pp 28→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Arch Manning +10pp 18→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Arch Manning +9pp 12→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · 4+ international-born players drafted +7pp 53→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Chelsea +7pp 1→8¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/which-teams-draft-qb-1st-round-of-pro-football-draft
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=which-teams-draft-qb-1st-round-of-pro-football-draft

## License

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