# Will Gretchen Whitmer run for president in 2028?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 38% across 14 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/whitmer-2028
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.087Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 38% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gretchen Whitmer | 21¢ | −1pp | $919 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-gwhi |
| Hunter Biden | 26¢ | −1pp | $237 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-hbid |
| Stephen A. Smith | 23¢ | ±0 | $92 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-sas |
| Kamala Harris | 61¢ | −1pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-khar |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 54¢ | +4pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-aoc |
| Before 2028 | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-announce-a-run-for-president-of-kalshi-kxtrumprun-28jan01 |
| Before Election Day | 20¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-announce-a-run-for-president-of-kalshi-kxtrumprun-28nov07 |
| Gavin Newsom | 85¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-gnew |
| Wes Moore | 50¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-wmoo |
| Tim Walz | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-twal |
| Mark Kelly | 61¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-mkel |
| Jon Stewart | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-jste |
| Rahm Emanuel | 72¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-rema |
| Abigail Spanberger | 31¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028drun-28-aspa |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 45 |
| 2026-05-25 | 45 |
| 2026-06-01 | 41 |
| 2026-06-08 | 85 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · Hunter Biden +7pp 16→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Hunter Biden +5pp 23→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Hunter Biden +4pp 12→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +4pp 50→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Gretchen Whitmer −3pp 28→25¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 29¢; kalshi "Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 21¢; kalshi "Will Josh Shapiro be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 6¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.

### Key factors

- Whitmer nomination probability near 0%
- Newsom primary candidate interest at 29%
- Low market conviction for early 2028 cycle declarations
- High volatility in broader political prediction markets

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/whitmer-2028
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=whitmer-2028

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.