# Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary

> Tom Begich leads at 95%, runner-up 67% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-advance-from-alaska-governor-primary
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:09.976Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-18

## Headline

- Leader: Tom Begich at 95%
- Runner-up: Bernadette Wilson at 67%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $78

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Begich | 95¢ | −1pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0xe96f816325f6c2a18640183af71d976e7a59fae32ed47720168874066b2f2ae8 |
| Bernadette Wilson | 67¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0x39dc2c86efd159ae5b0fddc70b0b15af308993353eff43b5725bf6a0e473ca83 |
| Lesil McGuire | 49¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0x53b57ecd30664c0f0356b3a82e7276602afe1b9660f1d9f11ecffe86820981c0 |
| Bill Walker | 47¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0xef8afe2de2ff58d24e8515069609d2056ccfa91b1fac4328f51fc392c1c14300 |
| Jessica Faircloth | 44¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0xe3ca06854cae6dd38000c97d51ea7e6c1cdd11297246d95ea54da0fe4344064d |
| Destry J. Payne Sr. | 43¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0xb8e253d3ef180de6596a972eeebe1e9f9595a2eab051b062355a956a2051b878 |
| Matt Claman | 42¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0x4427ce55f5fc0cc00f2708f914c585442bce7eede689d5daec4671449dc25f8d |
| Click Bishop | 36¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0x3342ecddb31d790a0aa690a12b3ef674d0c5014fcd5c3a50afb828b30f982170 |
| Dave Bronson | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0x7fdfdf3089f2926e189998489f530a1a4b3f90ee8d2d52f81d8774757f8ca762 |
| Treg Taylor | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0x77396e9b7a44481197718658079006c7b1eff3e9e763007d6b4755fcbaf7c4df |
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 31¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0xdfa9c276f883ae7539684ceaf7289ff3db4b83003afb1b8f561f0a569368ff24 |
| Gregg Brelsford | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0xd3ce92b24cf19c6c853386234c9211ff89c28e2540ddbeeeaa312665b041942d |
| Matt Heilala | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0x24853c19d734365752c0080d4c571619d025f51bb87f6a5b0571c1af28d070fc |
| James Parkin | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0xd7afa8f3868459d2c64479934411e90a9a3ed1a1961dc577f4d9bd05549bec6e |
| Adam Crum | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0x73ed39e6ef4b022710fcfa177b343e68d057045833ce53a322062de48291fe91 |
| Shelley Hughes | 5¢ | +1pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0xc9fd5b3819b1cb07c59fed27c7566e80f5ea6892a34767b5cad49665d7d27e4d |
| Edna DeVries | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0xe70dc5791fd703624bdd33fbdd6c4374bf51723c4c5e2fb88ee87857dc72d762 |
| Hank Kroll | 4¢ | −1pp | $46 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0xd4e5831d2c951273ae9944cc3972eb09dc257a57d97ff5954ff2a443a194f318 |
| Nancy Dahlstrom | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0xc42165d729164b01fe0f147307731c8d1cfb0c3e7db1920a83dbf04f751c1127 |
| Bruce Walden | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary-polymarket-0x1b752eca1cb98032be2d6b30c0e7cb7d7c9c960e50e7ee12b44565ae631fe7ef |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Tom Begich | Bernadette Wilson | Lesil McGuire |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 95 | 70 | — |
| 2026-05-25 | 95 | 68 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 95 | 68 | — |
| 2026-06-02 | 95 | 68 | 47 |
| 2026-06-07 | 94 | 68 | 52 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins −16pp 48→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · Click Bishop −12pp 49→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · Treg Taylor −11pp 40→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · Lesil McGuire −9pp 47→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · Nancy Dahlstrom −7pp 10→3¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Tom Begich will advance from Alaska's gubernatorial primary at an 89% confidence level. Begich's commanding position likely reflects his name recognition, fundraising capacity, and polling standing relative to Republican opponents in the state's ranked-choice voting system. The market has substantially priced in his viability, though uncertainty remains around turnout patterns, late-breaking endorsements, or shifts in voter preference during the primary season. The Alaska primary is scheduled for August 2026, which will definitively resolve this contract. Between now and then, quarterly fundraising disclosures, internal polling leaks, and any major candidate withdrawals could shift the probability meaningfully.

### Key factors

- Tom Begich's current fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to closest Republican competitors
- Alaska's ranked-choice voting mechanics and whether they favor Begich's coalition or enable splitting among opponents
- August 2026 primary election date and final voter turnout relative to historical baselines for Alaska gubernatorial races
- Any candidate exits or consolidations that would redirect support before the primary vote
- Recent public polling data on head-to-head matchups and candidate favorability among likely primary voters

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-advance-from-alaska-governor-primary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-advance-from-alaska-governor-primary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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