# Who will advance from the California Lieutenant Governor primary

> Closed. Last odds frozen 6 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-advance-from-california-lieutenant-governor-primary
Updated: 2026-06-11T07:20:52.734Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janelle Kellman | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-california-lieutenant-go-polymarket-0xf072ab6b7d88d563a3d793f2eac1830df3470c7a161f1977c19dea466acc8ce2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 8 |
| 2026-06-09 | 3 |
| 2026-06-10 | 0 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-09 · Janelle Kellman −5pp 8→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-10 · Janelle Kellman −3pp 3→0¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 9% probability indicates that Janelle Kellman has a roughly 1-in-11 chance of advancing from the California Lieutenant Governor primary. The current estimate reflects market assessment of her position among multiple candidates competing for the two spots that advance to the general election. Key factors shaping this probability include the candidate's current polling standing relative to frontrunners, fundraising totals compared to competitors, and endorsement patterns. The June 2026 primary election will ultimately determine which candidates secure enough votes to advance. Until then, any significant shifts in campaign momentum, poll movements, or candidate entry/exits could materially impact expectations around individual candidate advancement chances.

### Key factors

- Current polling position relative to the leading California Lieutenant Governor candidates and proximity to the top-two threshold
- Fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other declared candidates in the race
- Endorsements from established Democratic Party figures, labor unions, or other influential organizations
- Voter name recognition and turnout patterns in California primary elections among the likely electorate
- Any candidate entry, exit, or major strategic shift by frontrunners that could reshape the competitive landscape

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-advance-from-california-lieutenant-governor-primary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-advance-from-california-lieutenant-governor-primary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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