# Who will announce Presidential run before 2027

> Rahm Emanuel leads at 35%, runner-up 18% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-announce-presidential-run
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.144Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Rahm Emanuel at 35%
- Runner-up: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 18%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $680

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rahm Emanuel | 35¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-rah-polymarket-0xbfff23136ecd51c8ab9b5027c2dc1a4b83f85b1b3848547cea36a1eb97fcb3f6 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 18¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-ale-polymarket-0x59a624a70bb9f3a6d182b07e6427c8c879bee9c8dac2bfb89d18cb4aefcea803 |
| Marco Rubio | 14¢ | −1pp | $97 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-mar-polymarket-0x5006bf5e4b17f5ec12692d9fa249647dedd3ab9a46c7485207487e9e08b95c95 |
| Beto O’Rourke | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-bet-polymarket-0x3ea2f7cef17dcf428183678588bf2d0b8357003bed0b0f6e5f416605667b64cd |
| Phil Murphy | 13¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-phi-polymarket-0xc929dcad53a07830784d02fc12330ccce0dab242d533881875fd83776f766c74 |
| Greg Abbott | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-gre-polymarket-0xb1d3e0fb976c1a20729f3c62a8367909b178b67708a7396984929c3018928ec3 |
| John Fetterman | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-joh-polymarket-0xa27ff8f214d6cfc8c29c8b8f6e2be5fd25243b8e5ca61321df6fa2b387c0d3ad |
| Byron Donalds | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-byr-polymarket-0xb8f08eca86a10d7af9e2cce2a43f801dfc0329ca9d05f97f4caf820b11e4b733 |
| Ron DeSantis | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-ron-polymarket-0x30094b95263382ee843cf47979157582dba894ea10fae428d5e565075853ad3f |
| Tim Walz | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-tim-polymarket-0x75483880ce5ef94cd8d1ba1841c27f4c41b6619b74bc4db948376adccedbcd47 |
| Stephen A. Smith | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-ste-polymarket-0x78305c2676796fd70d564cd59c6d884f8228d8cbd63b70bf4ee420519953db8f |
| Jon Ossoff | 10¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-jon-polymarket-0x8e7c4e8bb55ea1e2e3011f37f96bc254e156b26cd5ea092a7cade3ca268da7b7 |
| Ivanka Trump | 7¢ | −1pp | $288 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-iva-polymarket-0x3a4346b0618af3efcd946f27650d20cee348308bd4f8c06e62df8e9eabbe0fdb |
| Cory Booker | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-cor-polymarket-0xa09707791ab1f3440c3a286c7e76701a8c8344f5703d2ee61929caf0ffca0fee |
| Michelle Obama | 5¢ | +22pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-mic-polymarket-0x5289dd43556603f835787d79d63de726f81d53caf290d686c4246a0c10049386 |
| Zohran Mamdani | 4¢ | −22pp | $73 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-zoh-polymarket-0x5c01405388eafd46554b6e95343eb7e37824b5ffcbf0081ed834500ddf39319f |
| Hillary Clinton | 3¢ | ±0 | $161 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-hil-polymarket-0x9a65d6115725205fe48ed272ca8a3c981325dd7cb6022151950bfa17c96d3958 |
| Chelsea Clinton | 3¢ | +11pp | $41 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-che-polymarket-0x2aa5399c60c52a0b802c5c7a5dcdc9a5435c62190e1ff500482ff2bd41fe46f2 |
| LeBron James | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-leb-polymarket-0xda431b7c1cb5883dd47f8c6586e2736e08a2bf6d46431a20f01cde7892ca3128 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Rahm Emanuel | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Marco Rubio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 32 | — | — |
| 2026-04-11 | 27 | 13 | — |
| 2026-04-13 | 27 | — | 10 |
| 2026-04-15 | 26 | 14 | — |
| 2026-04-16 | 26 | 15 | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 29 | — | 9 |
| 2026-04-28 | 35 | 23 | 16 |
| 2026-05-02 | 22 | — | 11 |
| 2026-05-07 | 30 | 25 | 19 |
| 2026-05-08 | 27 | — | 18 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Zohran Mamdani −22pp 27→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Cory Booker −22pp 34→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Phil Murphy −16pp 30→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Byron Donalds −11pp 23→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Rahm Emanuel +11pp 16→27¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects the probability that some candidate will publicly announce a 2028 presidential campaign before the end of 2026. At 18%, traders assess this as unlikely but possible within the next seven months. The relatively low probability reflects that early announcements are historically uncommon for non-incumbent candidates—most wait until after the midterm election cycle concludes or closer to the official campaign season. However, recent political trends show shortened timelines and increased early positioning. Key drivers include whether major Democratic or Republican figures move from speculation to formal announcement, and whether the current administration's positioning creates incentive for challengers to declare early. The remainder of 2026 will be critical; any major announcement before year-end would substantially resolve this outcome, while silence through November suggests lower likelihood.

### Key factors

- Gavin Newsom futures trading at 14¢ represents the largest concentration, indicating he is perceived as the most likely early declarer among all candidates
- Historical precedent: sitting governors and opposition figures rarely announce before the year prior to the election cycle
- Activity volume on Polymarket has declined significantly ($41-110 daily volume on top contracts), suggesting limited certainty and modest trader confidence in either direction
- The market distinguishes between this early-announcement outcome and actual 2028 candidacy, meaning non-announcement by major figures would still leave them viable candidates
- Q4 2026 represents the final window; any delay past November substantially favors the outcome resolving to 'no']

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-announce-presidential-run
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-announce-presidential-run

## License

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