# Who will be arrested before 2027

> John Brennan leads at 50%, runner-up 30% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-arrested
Updated: 2026-06-08T02:20:07.726Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: John Brennan at 50%
- Runner-up: Letitia James at 30%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brennan | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-john-brennan-polymarket-0x087d55571a3847d92cab41c9aa6e05d6111dcbf2b95559627d3cf88fc53d22fe |
| Letitia James | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-letitia-james-polymarket-0x1b5f6d557381c9d5e5c8b9cb3aff3396c721fe6fc65c647e9d859adaa15747ce |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 28¢ | −5pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-jos-luis-rodrguez-polymarket-0x293a15dc69de092ea5f669af2a0207d7b9dbf32b8e53eae53cdea7785d915747 |
| Susan Rice | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-susan-rice-polymarket-0x0a08a2869ad15387b7e557ddad43d6973129cae2c0bdbe6740531cc8c2c912cd |
| James Clapper | 25¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-james-clapper-polymarket-0x44cd8b15befa5d0ce8e20dcefc25b91bf44907d6f83d148c7b600336d990085b |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 24¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-benjamin-netanyah-polymarket-0x47027f725e288491ebd5c0fff82b13cd590c643ba955caaf8802f4a5b492562a |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-mahmoud-khalil-polymarket-0x6f79a739c0694af2f9047acc2d88311911ff7def34a03b5dcc9e9e816e9e2e29 |
| Lee Jun-seok | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-lee-jun-seok-polymarket-0x0078d4162ef6aa7afe41df7cd973d031d34113029c8adea2321d7da0b7801bcb |
| Tom Homan | 20¢ | −3pp | $738 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-tom-homan-polymarket-0xbe555c50fc49ae7f1a970fbe13f226d179c192d87daa71c7ca082464b71fb8f6 |
| Lisa Cook | 18¢ | −1pp | $26 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-lisa-cook-polymarket-0x9bab81d09284255c1e27fe291c05f096e666a998af69c06c1368addb5eb760b4 |
| Loretta Lynch | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-loretta-lynch-polymarket-0x67c568e14e9691872d6f893fe3fc1e5560d792c066357d1d54f644c26ac36457 |
| Brandon Johnson | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-brandon-johnson-polymarket-0x950ae84dd0900bc6995ff8463c5ce8a373b7b2d8b5831b0f70896c324a97bd07 |
| Anthony Fauci | 8¢ | — | $13 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-anthony-fauci-polymarket-0x1a975c8210f5aa11c76d645a4dd746764799310898445689b17fb500a8925c80 |
| Candace Owens | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-candace-owens-polymarket-0x2a09bfbfa26749d75fd57506d752bc4101d4a6aac8ddba9c8f869976885beee0 |
| Hillary Clinton | 6¢ | ±0 | $865 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-hillary-clinton-polymarket-0x862c6d9cb806315fe626d37e8b9f21585710a98ada2fb9338061574fb9a5f453 |
| Adam Schiff | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-adam-schiff-polymarket-0xa996ddae9ea35ff0c110e5cc04f116714ec5d4013119088f347b27920017e590 |
| James Comey | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-james-comey-polymarket-0x408877da98dbe7b36a8efdc3075057e2ae600e71f39ea96c4ff019c26eb3e05a |
| Gavin Newsom | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-gavin-newsom-polymarket-0x30f0732734e61902d81cf2d3e37e531de8883b6a2c4cabd8ba3e4035977de1ed |
| Barack Obama | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-barack-obama-polymarket-0xf0f06f10ca905fa971609b18ea337047068e80e8fed592886edf1716a71fe389 |
| Bill Clinton | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027-bill-clinton-polymarket-0x19d90e579cbc01149eb72ddc05fe412f7afbe16abc6d599456a7232fde511ffa |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | John Brennan | Letitia James | José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 47 | 26 | 31 |
| 2026-06-01 | 54 | 28 | 39 |
| 2026-06-07 | 39 | 28 | 30 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Susan Rice +30pp 8→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · Susan Rice +14pp 33→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · Mahmoud Khalil −13pp 41→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · John Brennan −12pp 58→46¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · Mahmoud Khalil +8pp 33→41¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market assigns a 48% probability that John Brennan will face arrest before the end of 2026, making it the leading outcome among 20 named individuals. The probability reflects uncertainty around potential legal proceedings involving the former CIA director, likely connected to ongoing investigations or litigation. Factors driving the current level include the status of any active cases, statements from prosecutors or courts, and political developments that could trigger or accelerate legal action. Resolution depends on whether formal arrest occurs before January 1, 2027—a binary outcome with less than eight months remaining. Volume on the leading contract remains modest, suggesting limited mainstream attention or confidence in the outcome.

### Key factors

- Current legal status: whether any indictments, warrants, or court filings exist against Brennan as of mid-2026
- Recent prosecutor or law-enforcement statements: any public indication of intent to pursue charges or make arrests
- Political environment: whether control of relevant agencies or administrations has shifted in ways that alter prosecution likelihood
- Calendar constraint: only ~225 days remain until resolution; any arrest would need to occur before year-end 2026
- Comparison to runner-up at 45%: the narrow margin suggests market participants view multiple outcomes as plausible rather than one as dominant

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-arrested
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-arrested

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.