# Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting

> Steve Witkoff leads at 72%, runner-up 70% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-attend-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting
Updated: 2026-05-09T08:50:31.282Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Steve Witkoff at 72%
- Runner-up: Jared Kushner at 70%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Witkoff | 72¢ | +3pp | $209 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-attend-the-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meet-polymarket-0x7e591fb31786d46761d906abbffbcec8eba519b649909bfb2d7833609a960782 |
| Jared Kushner | 70¢ | −2pp | $319 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-attend-the-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meet-polymarket-0xf0abc9c2b0726ec594aa6547d121e46d5264d778f20acd00689d5c21b5e38d18 |
| J.D. Vance | 41¢ | +1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/who-will-attend-the-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meet-polymarket-0x7e5228c4aa228752fb75ec1ffcb315a5f2fef812d746ceb6601cee285366d1a8 |
| Marco Rubio | 7¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-attend-the-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meet-polymarket-0xa65e9c75c4ad990e97e598f4c279887da5d51e0dddb781fcca0691c1c2798d9e |
| Donald Trump | 5¢ | — | $110 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-attend-the-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meet-polymarket-0xbdb17bc42314c7879e6bde4a15136a9a0f16605f6e530462b9dad774d1e63d86 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Steve Witkoff | Jared Kushner | J.D. Vance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | — | — | 39 |
| 2026-05-08 | 65 | 71 | 39 |
| 2026-05-09 | 68 | 69 | 40 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · Steve Witkoff +3pp 65→68¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-attend-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-attend-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.