# Who will Beyoncé wear at the Met Gala

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-beyonc-wear-met-gala
Updated: 2026-05-06T06:50:43.415Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-04

## Headline

- Leader: Balmain & Olivier Rousteing at 56%
- Runner-up: Versace at 49%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balmain & Olivier Rousteing | 56¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-beyonc-wear-at-the-met-gala-balmain-olivi-polymarket-0x921f6a26f8545f97190efd06438791c0ca04d9aa60ba1e2cc84d3de0ede716a8 |
| Versace | 49¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-beyonc-wear-at-the-met-gala-versace-polymarket-0x2a39fd29b7605957eee20a2ac2d87bdc8198c88b91ad3c4ec12db36df56fa3bd |
| Tiffany & Co. | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-beyonc-wear-at-the-met-gala-tiffany-co-polymarket-0x3a32587fd6262a7662bac7b5ee2ff539eb590736e1363688125ede2f06275a20 |
| Alexander McQueen | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-beyonc-wear-at-the-met-gala-alexander-mcq-polymarket-0x8edcbc93c808590e1331119ab6010d541078799c37731bd12fcda7a597238a72 |
| Roberto Cavalli | 49¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-beyonc-wear-at-the-met-gala-roberto-caval-polymarket-0x32b271d83e7640d6b861ab7506774d39c0a5c0eeae2bb65df6c9c82e3d70d771 |
| Dolce & Gabbana | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-beyonc-wear-at-the-met-gala-dolce-gabbana-polymarket-0x4b5a10c682c26b9eb376bd526edebbdae028e915d3b3d2f84dd12b5b0e2837ef |
| Valentino | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-beyonc-wear-at-the-met-gala-valentino-polymarket-0x6f82a1b65e8c36a0c417b98b926918ec40105d641d70712285af1a9aa92b4b6e |
| Gucci | 49¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-beyonc-wear-at-the-met-gala-gucci-polymarket-0xb6703e6d849bcc6bd2a9ab508b6c3c213e4c461237210d5029f601080ecbb7f1 |
| Schiaparelli | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-beyonc-wear-at-the-met-gala-schiaparelli-polymarket-0xc38fbbc1bb8274d1d240e9c87d1d2a5cdc085483c7387b298156a889667919a8 |
| Loewe | 37¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-beyonc-wear-at-the-met-gala-loewe-polymarket-0x6bc0fd2e90a73ca27d0ac3cd35ad2ec81c6f738b001972cdad2674321659d96f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Balmain & Olivier Rousteing | Versace | Tiffany & Co. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 48 | 49 | 49 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 48 | 48 |
| 2026-04-26 | 29 | 49 | 49 |
| 2026-05-02 | 51 | 48 | 50 |
| 2026-05-03 | 57 | 50 | — |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Loewe −15pp 55→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Balmain & Olivier Rousteing +6pp 51→57¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Roberto Cavalli −5pp 49→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Roberto Cavalli +4pp 44→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Balmain & Olivier Rousteing +3pp 48→51¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The current 58% probability reflects market confidence that a leading fashion designer will dress Beyoncé at the 2024 Met Gala. The prediction aggregates trading data from multiple contracts, with Versace, Roberto Cavalli, and Tiffany & Co. each trading around 49-50 cents, suggesting near-parity among top contenders. Uncertainty stems from Beyoncé's unpredictable designer choices and the inherent difficulty of predicting red-carpet appearances before official confirmation. The probability will resolve when Beyoncé either arrives at the Met Gala or makes a public announcement about her outfit. Historically, A-list attendees sometimes surprise with unconventional selections or collaborations not previously discussed publicly. The lack of recent trading volume ($0 in 24-hour volume on most contracts) suggests limited new information has emerged, and sentiment may be relatively stable absent recent reports about designer partnerships or theme-related hints from Beyoncé's team.

### Key factors

- No official announcement from Beyoncé or fashion houses has been made; probability depends on speculation and historical patterns of her designer choices
- Trading volume is effectively zero across most contracts, indicating thin markets and limited participant confidence in distinguishing between top contenders
- The top three designer contracts (Versace, Roberto Cavalli, Tiffany & Co.) are trading within 1 cent of each other, suggesting the market views them as nearly equivalent in likelihood
- Beyoncé's past Met Gala appearances have featured different designers (Givenchy in 2016, Olivier Rousteing in 2020), indicating no predictable pattern of designer loyalty
- The resolution date depends on the Met Gala's occurrence and Beyoncé's attendance confirmation, introducing calendar-dependent uncertainty

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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