# Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition

> Paramount leads at 69%, runner-up 13% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-close-warner-bros-acquisition
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.013Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Paramount at 69%
- Runner-up: None by June 30, 2027 at 13%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $895

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paramount | 69¢ | +1pp | $717 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-close-warner-bros-acquisition-paramount-polymarket-0xa71785ae27eeaf2a9f7adf8f4f0d7db11e773fa2602b28c55399d31e91c3f2f0 |
| None by June 30, 2027 | 13¢ | +1pp | $178 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-close-warner-bros-acquisition-none-by-jun-polymarket-0x3347f5c9c3b49e0165dbd1be6cc1757cee05fdbdc02f97352c9734c3ab765b26 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Paramount | None by June 30, 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 71 | 16 |
| 2026-04-24 | 76 | 21 |
| 2026-04-25 | 73 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 72 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 17 |
| 2026-05-03 | 74 | 18 |
| 2026-05-07 | 74 | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 72% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Warner Bros. will complete its acquisition, indicating strong confidence in deal closure. The high probability likely reflects favorable regulatory signals, financing certainty, or recent positive announcements about the transaction's progress. Conversely, factors that could lower this probability include regulatory concerns, financing complications, or major corporate developments affecting either party. The resolution will depend on whether the acquisition formally closes through to completion, with key milestones including regulatory approval timelines, shareholder votes, and any financing condition satisfaction. Market participants are pricing in deal completion as the more likely outcome, though the 17% runner-up position and 28% implied failure rate suggest meaningful deal risk remains.

### Key factors

- Regulatory approval status and any outstanding conditions from antitrust or sector-specific regulators
- Financing commitments and debt market conditions that enable deal completion
- Shareholder votes or required approvals from both Warner Bros. and acquiring entity
- Material changes to either company's financial performance or strategic direction since deal announcement
- Contractual termination clauses, reverse termination fees, or walk-away rights triggered by specific events

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-close-warner-bros-acquisition
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-close-warner-bros-acquisition

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