# Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 1 contract — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-confirmed-as-fed-chair
Updated: 2026-06-08T08:20:09.999Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-president-try-to-fire-the-jerome-powell-a-kalshi-kxtryfirepowell-26may12-gov2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 27 |
| 2026-05-25 | 22 |
| 2026-06-01 | 15 |
| 2026-06-08 | 13 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' assessment that a specific individual will successfully undergo Senate confirmation as the next Federal Reserve Chair, currently estimated at 62%. The probability sits at the midpoint of traditional political uncertainty, neither heavily favored nor unlikely. Market confidence hinges on two primary dynamics: Senate composition and voting patterns in confirmation votes, and any potential withdrawal or alternative candidate emerging. The Senate Banking Committee hearing and subsequent floor vote represent the critical juncture that will clarify whether this nominee commands sufficient bipartisan support or faces substantial opposition. The 4-percentage-point gap between venues suggests modest disagreement about confirmation likelihood, with Polymarket pricing slightly more optimistic than Kalshi.

### Key factors

- Senate Banking Committee confirmation vote schedule and timing remain the single largest event driving resolution
- Cross-venue probability gap of 4 percentage points indicates venues have not fully converged, suggesting differing assessments of Senate voting behavior
- No bound contracts at top level implies market participants are still positioning ahead of major information events
- Confirmation probabilities typically reflect underlying Senate party composition and historical confirmation voting patterns
- Alternative nomination scenarios or candidate withdrawal would substantially shift baseline expectations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-confirmed-as-fed-chair
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-confirmed-as-fed-chair
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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