# Who will enter Iran by June 30

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-enter-iran-june-30
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $523

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any U.S. House member | 3¢ | −1pp | $523 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-enter-iran-by-june-30-any-us-house-member-polymarket-0x584c9773bd54965e7c1b4c7ca6dd6ec7a7ee47632f41f877be179aeb3c9006be |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 4 |
| 2026-06-06 | 3 |
| 2026-06-12 | 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | 1 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market asks whether anyone will physically enter Iran by June 30, 2026—a timeframe of roughly 8 weeks from today. The 7% probability reflects skepticism that major political or security developments would trigger cross-border entry by that date. The current level balances two competing dynamics: falling regimes or negotiated political settlements could enable such entry, while Iran's closed borders and lack of imminent regime collapse make it unlikely in the near term. The June 2026 FOMC meeting and ongoing nuclear negotiation discussions represent potential catalysts, though neither directly guarantees cross-border movement. A collapse of Iranian state control, successful regime change, or dramatic diplomatic breakthrough would substantially increase this probability, whereas continued regional stability would keep it low.

### Key factors

- Iranian regime stability and state control of borders remain intact as of May 2026, with no active armed rebellion or imminent collapse scenarios
- Reza Pahlavi (primary contract focus) lacks military force or external military backing to enter Iran unilaterally within two months
- Nuclear deal negotiations cited in related contracts show diplomatic engagement but no timeline suggesting regime change or border opening by June 30
- Related contract at 7% (regime fall by June 30) suggests underlying market assigns very low probability to any political upheaval this narrow timeframe
- Volume concentration in longer-dated contracts (December Pahlavi contract at 11¢) indicates traders assign higher probability to entry after June 30

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-enter-iran-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-enter-iran-june-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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