# Who will be the first substitute White House Press Secretary

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-first-substitute-white-house-press-secretary
Updated: 2026-05-06T18:50:40.859Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 97¢ | +6pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-the-first-substitute-white-house-press-polymarket-0xcaf2d4c916c395e86d5457163fc279c75e8f12361485d462f94be1b850ec2dd6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 13 |
| 2026-05-02 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 40 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Marco Rubio +6pp 34→40¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability indicates that markets estimate a 57% chance that one particular individual will be selected as the first substitute White House Press Secretary during the current administration. The probability reflects uncertainty around personnel decisions that depend on factors including staffing availability, internal political dynamics, and unforeseen departures or scheduling changes. The main driver of current odds appears to be the relative visibility and previous experience of the leading candidate compared to alternatives. Resolution will likely occur through an official White House announcement or credible reporting of the appointment, which could happen at any point depending on whether turnover in the position becomes necessary. The 43% runner-up probability suggests meaningful disagreement in the market about which candidate is most likely to receive this assignment.

### Key factors

- Current White House Press Secretary tenure and stated commitment to remaining in role
- Availability and prior media relations experience of the leading candidate versus alternatives
- Historical turnover rates for press secretaries in comparable administrations and their typical tenure length
- Proximity to major political events or scandals that might accelerate personnel changes
- Any public signals or reporting about succession planning or backup candidates within the administration

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-first-substitute-white-house-press-secretary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-first-substitute-white-house-press-secretary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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