# Who will Merab Dvalishivili fight next

> Petr Yan leads at 82%, runner-up 41% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-merab-dvalishivili-fight-next
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.629Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Petr Yan at 82%
- Runner-up: Umar Nurmagomedov at 41%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 82¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-merab-dvalishivili-fight-next-petr-yan-polymarket-0xeba97b11e9c5ea7ab9b699ad525fc1e707837dfc32be960364240f058a333305 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 41¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-merab-dvalishivili-fight-next-umar-nurmag-polymarket-0x664a377925f5fb2deff57417f5a6ca4c4539c3c8861c98379cff1df724ce15af |
| Cory Sandhagen | 38¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-merab-dvalishivili-fight-next-cory-sandha-polymarket-0x9ca6fe5445f4e07da502e60823eb15b0c3a3a563bf394ab211d79fcd65582a29 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 38¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-merab-dvalishivili-fight-next-deiveson-fi-polymarket-0x879c90504930dc5db91d5fc911c2843ae64577408722a9083d340a09bd5e5a16 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 17¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-merab-dvalishivili-fight-next-aiemann-zah-polymarket-0x12dd879b7149418c7acdc6ccf3385c619a37372d8de0af353e938f2c954cfcf6 |
| Sean O'Malley | 4¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-merab-dvalishivili-fight-next-sean-omalle-polymarket-0x79eff647667574db759c2d4a87f1dd5dde679bff865eb2b2e6c39022d702fb14 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Petr Yan | Umar Nurmagomedov | Cory Sandhagen |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 66 | 31 | 1 |
| 2026-04-25 | 64 | 34 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 82 | 24 | 39 |
| 2026-05-02 | 77 | 36 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 85 | 18 | 43 |
| 2026-05-07 | 84 | 34 | 39 |
| 2026-05-08 | 85 | 27 | 34 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Aiemann Zahabi −20pp 32→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Umar Nurmagomedov −16pp 34→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Umar Nurmagomedov +16pp 18→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Sean O'Malley −13pp 44→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Umar Nurmagomedov −7pp 34→27¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Merab Dvalishivili will face a specific opponent in his next UFC bout, with the leading contract showing 76% confidence. The probability reflects current fighter availability, UFC matchmaking patterns, and public statements about upcoming title contention or ranking positions. The main driver is UFC's scheduling decisions, which depend on fighter injury status, contractual obligations, and promotional priorities. The biggest catalyst will be an official UFC announcement of Dvalishivili's next fight booking, which typically comes 4-6 weeks before event scheduling. Until then, the market is pricing in the most likely opponent based on competitive positioning and the UFC's historical matchmaking approach in the bantamweight division.

### Key factors

- Dvalishivli's ranking position and recent performance determine eligibility for title shots versus interim or title-eliminator bouts
- Injury status and availability of other top-ranked bantamweights affects who the UFC deems a viable next opponent
- UFC event scheduling and fighter contracts dictate when and against whom fights can be realistically booked
- Public UFC statements or social media indications from Dvalishivili, opponent candidates, or matchmakers can shift market expectations
- Historical patterns in UFC bantamweight matchmaking suggest specific opponents are statistically more likely than others

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-merab-dvalishivili-fight-next
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-merab-dvalishivili-fight-next

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.