Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet
Leader sits at 95% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Tulsi Gabbard
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Howard Lutnick
Spread
79pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$9K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
221 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Tulsi Gabbard
0xea856b…e4ab
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: None before 2027
0x12a9e4…8de3
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Lee Zeldin
0x469bf2…b795
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Chris Wright
0x36764d…4f22
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Howard Lutnick
0xc405df…421d
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Marco Rubio
0x6fa23a…de38
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Doug Collins
0x33cbe5…e1dd
What moved the line
- May 19Chris Wright↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 22Tulsi Gabbard↑6pp39→45¢ · Polymarket
- May 22Howard Lutnick↑5pp29→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 19Marco Rubio↓5pp23→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 22Marco Rubio↓5pp18→13¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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