# Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet

> Closed. Last odds frozen 22 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-next-to-leave-trump-cabinet
Updated: 2026-05-24T01:20:12.946Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Tulsi Gabbard at 95%
- Runner-up: Howard Lutnick at 16%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsi Gabbard | 95¢ | +6pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-tu-polymarket-0xea856b452cda53c44a9c7d480037b57bb83589a0402bf2e161fa57550dbae4ab |
| Howard Lutnick | 16¢ | +5pp | $255 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-ho-polymarket-0xc405dfd08e6120f9284a5ecb384b8040338be47ac11985cf384ab723f34f421d |
| Marco Rubio | 9¢ | −5pp | $226 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-ma-polymarket-0x6fa23ac7052344d95eab9ed1a19553483e8283c781bfd756dc408697c415de38 |
| Lee Zeldin | 5¢ | −4pp | $398 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-le-polymarket-0x469bf2f615573438657b9d22cc5d16714140596d0a28c100f27ef58ce95db795 |
| None before 2027 | 3¢ | +1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-no-polymarket-0x12a9e4112e280ed03d300cec58037db113cd2d6511aead7c82bdd72461308de3 |
| Chris Wright | 3¢ | −1pp | $324 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-ch-polymarket-0x36764dbe2b6249004f2b2eea461ffc69dfcc6a2fa650236f59323eb500404f22 |
| Doug Collins | 3¢ | +1pp | $135 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-do-polymarket-0x33cbe5125b68de170659cfd8f01b7658d3b5bc49e5c84f14a72ed5124af7e1dd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Tulsi Gabbard | Howard Lutnick | Marco Rubio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 37 | 27 | 25 |
| 2026-05-17 | 39 | 29 | 22 |
| 2026-05-22 | 45 | 34 | 13 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-19 · Chris Wright −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Tulsi Gabbard +6pp 39→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Howard Lutnick +5pp 29→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-19 · Marco Rubio −5pp 23→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Marco Rubio −5pp 18→13¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-next-to-leave-trump-cabinet
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-next-to-leave-trump-cabinet
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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